Preface: Our 2019 preview will be a long one. So, we’re going to break it up over a few days so you don’t feel like you’re reading a novel… We will begin with a recap of the past few years so that everyone is up to speed on the current state of the TXST Football program and what has led us to this point. We will then dive into the defensive side of the ball tomorrow, followed by the offensive side of the ball on Tuesday, and finally wrap it up with our season prediction on Wednesday. Be sure to follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and the Forum to keep updated as we release the various sections.
Welcome to the new era of TXST Football!
There has been a renewed energy surrounding the program ever since the hiring of Jake Spavital. So many questions surround the Bobcats after the transition. There’s obviously many reasons to be optimistic after TXST made arguably one of it’s best head coaching hires in recent memory.
Over the next few days, we’ll take a look at what the upcoming season holds for the Bobcats. We will look at returning players, changes in offensive and defensive schemes, and which players are primed for a breakout season.
To really understand where the Bobcats are to start the 2019 season, let’s take a look back at the last few years. As a Bobcat fan, it’s been a tough road to get to this point for sure. The Bobcats are a combined 10-38 over the last 4 years spanning all of the Withers tenure and the final year of Coach Franchione. There are only a handful of teams in all of FBS that have a record as bad as the Bobcats over the same time period.
I’m not going to do an in depth analysis of those years or look into possible reasons for the poor performance during that time, but I will highlight a few key stats to give some perspective. I’ll use the S&P+ ratings to make things easy since they are an in depth rating system that takes into account play by play and drive data for all 800+ FBS games during the season.
In 2015, TXST was ranked #114 overall out of 128 FBS programs. They were #85 in offense, #122 in defense, and had the #96th ranked strength of schedule. They finished the season with a 3-9 record and it was hands down the worst season of Coach Fran’s most recent time with TXST.
Following the retirement of Coach Fran, the Bobcats brought in HC Everett Withers to turn things around and get them headed in the right direction. Unfortunately, that didn’t exactly happen. At least not in the wins and losses column. There’s a lot to be said about what Withers did for Texas State. Including taking a roster with limited depth and talent and rebuilding it to where we are today, but that’s a topic for a different article.
Withers was only HC for 3 years culminating with his termination before the final game of last season and the hiring of Jake Spavital as his replacement. During that time, his offense never seemed to establish an identity while his defense improved steadily in years one and two followed by a huge jump in his final season.
Here’s what the S&P+ rankings looked like during the 3 years Withers led the Bobcats.
Overall
| 2016 | 128 out of 128 |
| 2017 | 127 out of 130 |
| 2018 | 114 out of 130 |
Offense
| 2016 | 121 out of 128 |
| 2017 | 127 out of 130 |
| 2018 | 126 out of 130 |
Defense
| 2016 | 127 out of 128 |
| 2017 | 111 out of 130 |
| 2018 | 73 out of 130 |
Withers’ final year was the closest he came to putting everything together. He still had a ton of youth on the team and some depth issues that needed to be addressed for TXST to be a true contender in the Sun Belt, but the Bobcats finished the season at 3-9 and left several games on the table. Games that could have gone the other way had the offense been just a little better.
The defense improving from the #111 rated defense to #73 played a huge part in keeping the Bobcats in games they weren’t expected to be competitive in. Unfortunately, since the offense was in the bottom five, it wasn’t enough to win the five games the Bobcats lost by 10 points or less. Had the Bobcats offense been able to get things going last season, there’s a possibility they win some of those close games and Withers remains the head coach headed into the 2019 season with his most experienced and deep roster to date.
Instead, the offense didn’t put it all together and here we are. Enter Jake Spavital!
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and the Forum to stay updated on the next installment of our preview.
