Texas State fell at home last week at the hands of Troy, in a 31-13 result that does not quite reflect the type of game it was. The Bobcat defense played well enough to win the game, they held one of the better rushing attacks in the country to 0.8 yards per carry. Unfortunately for Texas State, committing four turnovers while your opponent has zero is not something this team could overcome.
The Bobcats fell to 5-3 on the season, but they have another opportunity to secure bowl eligibility in San Marcos this weekend against Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 6-2 on the year, and come into San Marcos after taking down Georgia State 44-27.
A Look at Georgia Southern
The Georgia Southern offense is pretty feast or famine. At the helm, they have Davis Brin, the sixth year transfer quarterback from Tulsa. The Eagles lean on Brin a lot, it’s an offense that throws the ball around the field a ton. He has attempted 360 passes this year, which is second in the FBS. That volume has landed Brin in the top 10 in the nation in passing yards, with 2,456. He has racked up 17 touchdowns but has also ended up putting the ball in harm’s way with 12 interceptions. He is not a threat to run the ball at all, so look for the Texas State pass rushers to pin their ears back and try to get into the backfield.
These are not your parent’s Georgia Southern Eagles, they do not run the ball nearly as often as they pass, but their run game is somewhat efficient when they give the ball to their running backs. Jalen White is their main back, and he has a ton of speed. If White gets to the edge, he is certainly a threat for a big play.
Khaleb Hood and Derwin Burgess Jr. have been far and away Georgia Southern’s best receivers. Their play style resembles Troy’s Jabre Barber, who’s speed gave the Bobcats fits to the tune of 10 catches for 160 yards last week. They like to get the ball out quickly to Hood and Burgess and let their athleticism take over, so the Bobcat secondary will have to play physical to counter that action.
On defense, their key player is without a doubt linebacker Marques Watson-Trent. Watson-Trent leads the team in tackles with 74, the player with the second most is DB T.J. Smith who has just 35 tackles. A difference of 39 tackles separates their leading tackler from the next best number. Kinne’s scheme is one that puts a lot of stress on linebackers, it will be a great matchup for Watson-Trent, who also has two interceptions this season.
The Georgia Southern defensive line has an equally impressive player in sophomore Isaac Walker. The athletic edge rusher leads the team in both sacks, and forced fumbles with five of each. Walker also leads the team in fumble recoveries with two, and has been credited with the second most deflected passes on the team. Wherever the ball goes, Walker goes.
T.J. Smith who I already mentioned is an important player in their secondary, he is second on the team in tackles, and has two interceptions on the year. The Georgia Southern defense forces a lot of turnovers, the Bobcats will have to be much more careful with the ball this week.
The Path to Victory
I think that if the Bobcats want to win this game, a lot of it will come down to how they respond to the short-intermediate passing game. That killed them against Troy, we saw so many quick passes from Gunnar Watson to receivers like Jabre Barber who just exploded after the catch.
Georgia Southern is a team who relies more on the quick game than Troy, so the Bobcats will need to make an adjustment. I’m no football coach, but if you ask me I think the idea that makes the most sense in preventing plays like that is to limit the amount of zero blitzes. Obviously, Texas State’s defense loves to be aggressive, it is their identify, I do not find it likely that they will dial down their blitz rate. Although after seeing how Troy was able to expose the weaknesses of it, they might not have a choice.
The Texas State offense has been kept relatively quiet the last couple of weeks. I think a lot of it relies on T.J. Finley. As it stands right now, as long as the Bobcats have Mahdi on the field, they will have an efficient rushing attack.
It is up to Finley to stay calm in the pocket and make the right decisions. Georgia Southern will create pressure, and they will try to overwhelm him to create turnovers. It’s what they do to everybody. Finley has not done a very good job taking care of the ball in the last two games, but if he plays smart, Texas State will win.
Last week, I said the game was a toss-up that leaned in Troy’s favor. This week, I think this is a very close, very evenly matched game that favors the Bobcats. Texas State’s athletic pass rushers match up well against Georgia Southern and Davis Brin. I think that G.J. Kinne and T.J. Finley will be extra motivated and will look to have a bounce back game on Saturday. I expect it to be a close game but favor the Bobcats to win this one in San Marcos.
