Texas State suffered their first loss in conference play on Saturday at the hands of Louisiana in Lafayette. It was the 11th loss the Bobcats have suffered to the Ragin’ Cajuns in as many games, this Saturday’s was by far the closest.
A culmination of third down conversions, red-zone stands, and a blocked punt led to a comeback victory for the Ragin’ Cajuns. After back-to-back road games to begin Sun Belt play, the Bobcats return to San Marcos to face the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks.
ULM came back to win last year’s game against Jake Spavital and the Bobcats, 31-30. Texas State has won two of the last three games against ULM, and is 4-6 against the Warhawks since joining the FBS ranks.
ULM comes into this game with a 2-3 record overall, but all three loses have come consecutively. They were blown out by Texas A&M, fell to Appalachian State on a field goal on the final play, and were steamrolled by South Alabama last week. On paper this looks like a favorable matchup for Texas State, but Terry Bowden’s Warhawks always prove to be a pesky challenge for Sun Belt foes.
A Look at ULM
They are led by quarterback Jiya Wright, who has not been off to an impressive start. Wright has completed just 52.2% of his passes for 544 yards to go along with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Four of his touchdowns came in their game against Appalachian State, ULM is not bringing a very explosive passing game to San Marcos. Although Wright does offer a little bit for the Warhawk offense on the ground.
ULM’s offense offers more on the ground than through the air, that is where most of their explosive plays come from. They primarily use Hunter Smith and Isaiah Woullard at the running back position. Smith is a little bit faster and more explosive. Woullard, the 5-9, 215-pound back has picked up 74% of his rushing yards after contact. Having a rushing threat at quarterback makes the overall running game more efficient. While Wright does not offer the same mobility as Zeon Chriss from Louisiana, or Brendon Lewis of Nevada, his legs will be something the Bobcats will have to look out for.
The best of their receiving options is Biletnikoff Award contender Tyrone Howell. The 6-foot-3, 204-pound receiver from Idabel, Oklahoma found himself on the preseason watchlist for the award after breaking out in a big way last season for the Warhawks. The sixth year transfer from Kansas State already has 27 receptions this season, no other Warhawk has more than 10. Howell is an extremely talented player, and certainly someone to have your eyes on going into this matchup.
The ULM defense forces a lot of takeaways, they’ve forced the most in the Sun Belt with 11. They are also first in the conference in turnover margin, a team that takes the ball away while being safe with it themselves will always be a difficult team to beat.
Michael Batton is their tackles leader, the junior linebacker has become the leader of the defense. Defensive lineman Jaylan Ware has also proved to be a massive problem for Warhawk opponents all season. Safety AJ Watts and linebacker Ja’Terious Evans have been playmakers for ULM as well, both players have two interceptions this season.
The Warhawk front seven has been a very respectable unit all season. While the pass rush has not been getting home as often as ULM would prefer, they have been formidable stopping the run. Their defense ranks 51st in the nation in rushing success rate, but 132nd in passing success rate. Look for T.J. Finley and the Texas State receivers to have a big game this week.
Keys to the Game
Bobcats need to pounce early. Outside of a home game with Appalachian State, ULM has not proven that they can be a team who goes score for score with opponents. That is just not the way they win games. If Texas State jumps out to an early lead and puts points on the board, forcing ULM to win through the air, they have a good chance at winning the game.
The Bobcats need to put the pressure on Jiya Wright. As I mentioned previously, ULM thrives off forcing more turnovers than they create. So, an easy way to make take the Warhawks out of their comfort zone? Force turnovers! They can do that by getting in the backfield and forcing Wright to go through his progressions quickly. Not to mention, Texas State’s defense is at its best when they get takeaways and they often have not been able to consistently get stops without them.
Lastly, Texas State needs to get off the field on third down, and limit the self-inflicted wounds. Giving up third down conversions, and committing undisciplined penalties have been the Achilles’ heel for the Bobcat defense all season long. Too often they have allowed teams to prolong drives that would have otherwise come to an end. Against a team like ULM who has had success running the ball, Texas State cannot afford those kinds of mistakes. The Warhawks would be happy to take the air out of the ball and keep the Texas State offense off the field for as long as possible.
I expect Texas State to win this game comfortably, but I would be lying if I did not say that I could easily envision a game where ULM shocks the Bobcats. However unlikely that may be, the Bobcats should not overlook the Warhawks. If any game remaining on the schedule could be classified as a trap game for Texas State, this would be the one.
