Do we even need to act like last weeks game happened? I’m sure many Texas State fans would like to wipe their memory of last weeks unfathomable 77-31 loss at the hands of Arkansas State.
The Bobcats now sit at 6-5 on the year and suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season. Texas State will take on South Alabama in San Marcos for the final regular season game of the year.
The Jaguars have been a tough team to read this year. They have been inconsistent, and while their offense has been far from bad, they haven’t been the juggernaut on that side of the ball that most people expected.
They’re currently second in the Sun Belt West, a division that has been a bloodbath in 2023. In the preseason coaches’ poll, that is right where South Alabama was projected to rank. Still, with the way this season has gone you can’t help but think this has been a slightly disappointing season for a team favored to challenge for the SBC title.
With that being said, South Alabama has been playing some very good football lately. They’re coming off wins against Arkansas State and Marshall to secure bowl-eligibility for the second year in a row.
A Look at South Alabama
Like many Sun Belt teams, South Alabama is led by a senior quarterback in Carter Bradley. Bradley reminds me a lot of Jared Goff. He is a talented player who is accurate passing the ball, but he is certainly beatable. He’s not a very impressive athlete, and he does not possess spectacular arm strength. The key for the Bobcats will be forcing him off his spot as a passer, if Bradley can sit in the pocket he can pick defenses apart, but if Texas State applies pressure, they can slow him down. Bradley is completing 67.2% of his passes this year for 2,477 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
South Alabama has one of the top rushers in the nation in La’Damian Webb. He is top-25 in rushing yards, and tied for second in rushing touchdowns with 16. Webb is fantastic in the open field, a very slippery runner that makes defenders miss left and right. The most impressive part of his game is his patience and vision reading blocks. He gives his offensive line time, and hits the gaps that they form with great efficiency. Webb is coming into this game against Texas State with back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances.
South Alabama uses two receivers far more than any other pass-catchers, but junior Caullin Lacy stands out above anyone else. Lacy is tied for third in the FBS in receiving yards, and has reached 100-yards receiving in eight of the Jaguars 11 games. Lacy is 5’10” and 190 lbs with tons of speed. He is South Alabama’s best playmaker with the ball in his hands, so the Jaguars get it to him often at all three levels of the field. Jamaal Pritchett is their second leading receiver, and he is a very similar player. Smaller with lots of speed, and a true danger after the catch.
South Alabama has a solid defense, they shutout Marshall in their last game. Jaden Voisin, their junior safety is certainly the best player on that unit. He is an extremely versatile player who can make plays in the secondary and in the box. He leads the team with four interceptions, has a forced fumble, and is third on the team in tackles this season.
They have a stout rushing defense, they give up the third fewest rushing yards per game in the Sun Belt. As one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt, South Alabama looks like quite the challenge for the Bobcat offense this Saturday.
Final Thoughts
While I don’t think this game will end anywhere near as bad as the 77-31 drubbing received last week, this is not a game that I am confident Texas State will win.
South Alabama is extremely well-rounded. One of the best defenses Texas State has played this season, paired with one of the better offenses in the conference. Finley will have to take much better care of the ball this week, because Texas State cannot afford to give the Jaguars extra possessions.
On a positive note, Texas State has been a much better team at home compared to on the road, they are 4-1 in San Marcos. Texas State averages nearly 100 more rushing yards per game when they’re at home instead of on the road. The defense has similar success as a rushing defense, allowing 75 fewer yards per game on the ground at home.
Ismail Mahdi was quiet in last week’s blowout with the Bobcats playing from behind, I expect Kinne to get the ball in his hands early and often. I mentioned that getting pressure on Carter Bradley is important for limiting South Alabama’s offense, they absolutely need big days from Ben Bell and the rest of the front seven.
The all-time series between these two teams is tied 4-4, with the home game winning every matchup. I expect to see a focused, motivated Texas State team looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week.
