After opening conference play with an eventful victory over Southern Miss last week, Texas State is back on the road to face Louisiana in Lafayette.
The Bobcats have begun the season 4-1, their best start since 2005. For Louisiana, they are coming into this game with a 3-2 record. They lost their only conference matchup against Old Dominion 38-31 in week two. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a much different team than they were in the early weeks of the season, most notably at quarterback where Zeon Chriss has taken over as the signal caller.
There will be fireworks in this game, Texas State will take one of the nations most prolific offenses into Lafayette. The Bobcats are ninth in the nation in scoring offense, and 13th in total offense. Texas State put up 516 yards last week against Southern Miss, marking the third straight week where the Bobcats have surpassed 500 yards.
Louisiana brings in an elite offense of their own, as they currently rank third in the Sun Belt in scoring offense.
A Look at Louisiana
Zeon Chriss has been the talk of the Sun Belt entering this game. The redshirt freshman took over at quarterback during their matchup against UAB in week three and has been a problem for Ragin’ Cajun opponents.
Chriss has been effective in the passing game, completing 67% of his passes and racking up nearly 600 yards through three games. However, his legs are his most dangerous weapon. He is a fantastic runner, and his rushing ability really helps to prop up the rest of their run game.
Jacob Kibodi is Louisiana’s go-to running back. He is off to an incredible start to the season, and earned a scholarship after their game against UAB. Coming into this game he has nearly 400 yards to go along with four touchdowns, averaging a ridiculous 9.4 yards per carry. He averaged 5.4 yards in their first two games, but in the three games that Chriss has played in, his averages have been 15.4, 14.3, and 9.3. The value of a quarterback who is a threat running the ball goes beyond just his own statistics, a lot of pressure will be on the Bobcat linebackers try to stop Louisiana’s terrific rushing attack.
Louisiana does not have one particular wide receiver who separates himself from the pack. It’s a deep, versatile receiving room. They have five receivers and tight ends who have 12 receptions or more, they spread the ball around a plethora of pass catchers.
Louisiana has a very, very good offensive line. They get terrific push, ranking 15th in the nation in yards before contact per rushing attempt. The Bobcats front seven against the Ragin’ Cajun offensive line might be the most exciting part of this week’s game.
Louisiana’s defense shares a lot of similarities with Texas State’s. They get after the quarterback, and are currently tied for fourth in the nation in sacks with 19. Their leaders on defense are sophomore Kendre’ Gant, and junior linebacker K.C. Ossai, brother of former Longhorn and current Cincinnati Bengal, Joseph Ossai. K.C. leads the team in tackles, and has a sack along with a forced fumble. Kendre’ is a catalyst on defense, who lives in the backfield and is viewed as one of the best defensive players in the Sun Belt this season. Louisiana’s defense does not have great efficiency statistics against the run, they are near the bottom of the nation in EPA per rush. Ossai and Gant will have to play a key role for the Ragin’ Cajuns to try to stop an efficient Texas State rushing attack.
Louisiana has a lot of players on their front seven that Texas State will need to look out for, Jordan Lawson is one of them. The 6’4″ 235 lbs sophomore leads the team in sacks with four. Sophomore linebacker Cameron Whitfield out of Houston certainly seems like a problem off the edge for the Ragin’ Cajuns, he has 3.5 sacks this season.
Statistical analysis does not suggest that Louisiana is a good run defending team, but they do seem to have a good passing defense. Sophomore safety Tyree Skipper, and sophomore Courtline Flowers have both gotten off to hot starts in 2023. The Bobcat offense looks to be this secondary’s biggest test so far this season.
For what it’s worth, Louisiana also has a great kicker in Kenneth Almenderas. Dating back to last season, he has made 17 consecutive kicks, just one shy of a school record held by Brett Baer. It is also the second longest active streak in the nation, behind Alabama’s Will Reichard who has made 20 consecutive.
The Case for Texas State
In all honesty, this game is a tossup to me. Louisiana is a very good football team, so a pair of narrow losses to good teams does not change my opinion of them. Traveling out to Lafayette is never an easy task, there is a reason Texas State has never even played a two-score game in that venue.
Obviously, these are different times, both squads are as evenly matched as they have been since Texas State joined the FBS ranks.
Defensively and offensively, this game will be won on the ground. An interesting layer to this game is that Louisiana’s offense is very efficient on early downs, first and second. On the other hand, they don’t have great numbers on third and fourth. In theory, if you force their offense to operate behind schedule, you succeed. However, same story for the Texas State defense. Great efficiency numbers on early downs, bad numbers on third and fourth. Whichever team is able to improve on their weakness gains a big advantage in this game.
Texas State has to continue their success running the ball, obviously Ismail Mahdi will be a huge part of the offense again on Saturday. The offensive line has to give T.J. Finley time in the pocket, as I mentioned Louisiana is a very aggressive team and they rack up a lot of sacks. This game very well could look like the UTSA game offensively if the offensive line has an off day. Like just about every football game, this game will be won by the team that is more physical in the trenches.
