Texas State stumbled on the road against Coastal Carolina last Saturday. The Bobcats rallied late, but ultimately fell to the Chanticleers by a score of 31-23 in a game that saw 122 yards of penalties for Texas State.
That loss dropped the Bobcats to 6-4 on the season, and 3-3 in conference play. Texas State would have to win its remaining two games to match the programs most successful year in the Sun Belt in 2014 when they won five conference games.
The Bobcats have yet to lose back-to-back games this season. Coming off a loss to Coastal Carolina, their opponent next week is Arkansas State in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The Red Wolves shook off a couple of embarrassing losses to Oklahoma and Memphis to start the year and also sit at 3-3 in conference play, but with a 5-5 overall record.
Texas State has won three in a row in the series, with all three games being decided by three points or fewer. The Bobcats have won just one game in Jonesboro, their lone road victory over the Red Wolves came in 2021 against an Arkansas State team who was led by former Bobcat Layne Hatcher.
A Look at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves have a fantastic young quarterback in Jaylen Raynor. He is a great runner, and I am really impressed by his accuracy as a passer downfield. In their game against UMass in week five, Raynor joined Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes as the only true freshmen to throw six touchdown passes in a game since 2013. Raynor ranks fifth in the nation in yards per completion, leading a passing offense that relies on explosive plays. His first start came in week four against Southern Miss, and he has been the Red Wolves QB in every game since. He has racked up 19 total touchdowns with five interceptions.
Arkansas State relies on two running backs fairly equally. Redshirt-sophomore Ja’Quez Cross has 96 carries on the year, while redshirt-junior Zak Wallace has 114 carries this season. Despite fewer carries, Cross has more yards on the year with 522 compared to 491 for Wallace. Cross is also utilized in the passing game as well as being a big play threat, while Wallace is more of a prototypical back that runs between the tackles. Raynor is also a fantastic runner and the offense goes to the zone read very often, putting opposing defenses in situations where they have to commit and make decisions quickly. The Red Wolves have a solid rushing attack.
They really spread the ball out between all of their pass-catchers, they have a tight end in Emmanuel Stephenson who gets involved in the pass game, as well as Cross who I mentioned earlier. Courtney Jackson has been their most reliable target as he leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but Corey Rucker and Jeff Foreman have been having great seasons as well. When you are preparing for a team like Texas State, you know that Hobert, Wilson, and Hawkins are going to be the main receivers, with the ball being peppered to a handful of other players throughout the game. Arkansas State is different, they have about six or seven different players that get the ball fairly often. It will be an interesting task for Jonathan Patke’s defense to prepare for.
I have also been impressed with Arkansas State’s offensive line. While slightly inconsistent in pass protection this season, they do a great job run blocking. The offensive line includes some of PFF’s highest graded offensive linemen in the Sun Belt in Jacob Bayer, Makilan Thomas, and Jalen Cunningham.
The Arkansas State defense has really come together over their past three games, turning in good performances against UL Monroe, Louisiana, and South Alabama.
This is in large part due to great performances from the defensive line, they recorded 25 pressures in the ULM game alone. This is a group who has been playing their best ball of the season as of late, especially senior DE Thurman Geathers who ranks third in the Sun Belt in QB pressures with 31. DE Keyron Crawford leads the team in sacks, and has forced two fumbles this season.
Standout redshirt-freshman linebacker Javante Mackey has been absolutely phenomenal for Arkansas State this season. The 6’2″, 228 lbs linebacker leads the team in solo tackles this season, and was named one of the 12 semifinalists for the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year award. PFF rates Mackey as the best player on the Arkansas State defense, as well as the best freshman linebacker in the country.
Arkansas State has a really solid front seven, but there are some holes for Kinne and the offense to exploit in the secondary. While they have played well of late, Arkansas State’s defense has been far from a great unit on the year.
Setting the Table
I mentioned that this is the final road game for Texas State this season, but it is also the last home game for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves sit at 5-5, with two games remaining they will certainly hope to secure bowl-eligibility at home rather than when they travel to face Marshall next week.
Arkansas State has not been to a bowl game since 2019, a long wait for a program who reached bowl-eligibility every season between 2011 and 2019. Butch Jones began his tenure with five combined wins in his first two years, they began this season by being outscored 110-3 to Oklahoma and Memphis.
Miraculously, Arkansas State has turned the season around. This game is probably the closest either program has to an in-conference rivalry. With this much on the line for the Red Wolves, I expect Texas State to be going into a very loud and hostile environment tomorrow.
This is a very important game for Arkansas State’s program, the Bobcats will be facing a motivated team. Kinne will need to make sure his team is relaxed, the last thing he needs is to fall behind early against a team that will be this galvanized.
Buckle up for this one, Bobcat fans. I expect a very entertaining game tomorrow afternoon.
