Football season has finally arrived for Texas State, marking the beginning of the G.J. Kinne era as the Bobcats travel to Waco to take on Baylor.
The two teams matched up last season, with the Bears coming out on top 42-7 after Texas State played them closer in 2021, falling 29-20.
Offensive Outlook
Offensively, Baylor is a different team than what the Bobcats faced a year ago. The Bear’s offense was a solid, but not special, group last season.
At quarterback is a familiar face: Blake Shapen, a rising junior, had a shaky and inconsistent season in 2022. He finished the year with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a total of 2,790 yards. Shapen played in all 13 games for the Bears, and with Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson breathing down his neck. Baylor will likely have higher expectations for their signal caller this season.
Baylor’s running back room is perhaps their best position group on the roster. It is made up of a two-headed monster in Richard Reese, and Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson. Reese ran for 156 of his season total 972 yards against Texas State last year. That season total is a Baylor freshman record. Richardson, likewise, tallied 543 yards in nine games last season. Look for Richardson to be more of a power back to compliment Reese who is your typical one-cut RB.
At wide receiver, Aranda brought in a new face in former four-star transfer Arkansas Razorback, Ketron Jackson Jr. Being the only wide receiver on the depth chart without an “OR” next to his name, expectations are high for the 6’3″ receiver. Baylor also returns Monaray Baldwin, one of the fastest players in the country – look out for the 5’9″ junior out of the slot.
Baylor lost a massive 87% of snaps on their offensive line. This is a group that has not played much football together. Don’t be fooled, this is far from a bad group. Gavin Byers is the only returning starter from last season, he has bulked up and made the move from RT to LG. They also picked up a game-changing duo from the transfer portal in the Barrington brothers from BYU. Clark Barrington is a former All-American who is moving to center after playing left guard his whole career. His brother Campbell will be the LT.
Defensive Outlook
The Baylor defense was a disappointing unit last season after being one of the best defenses in the country in 2021.
Baylor’s starting ends share a lot of experience. Gabe Hall and TJ Franklin are both redshirt seniors with lots of games played. Both of whom regressed in statistical productivity in 2022 compared to 2021, but certainly do not lack talent. Hall particularly will be the player to look out for on the defensive line. With transfer DT Jerrell Boykins Jr. out for the game with an injury, the Bears will hope to replace Siaki Ika’s productivity with Cooper Lanz and Treven Ma’ae. Nose tackle could be a potential weakness for the Bears on Saturday.
Kyler Jordan is currently listed as the starter for Baylor at their JACK position. The redshirt freshman is 6’1″ and 235 lbs. However, redshirt senior Garmon Randolph (6’7″ 250 lbs), currently listed as the backup – is who everyone expects to be the starter going forward. Randolph is more of a prototypical edge defender but is not listed as the starter due to an off-the-field issue. It’s unclear if Aranda will play Randolph against Texas State. Baylor’s STAR position will be shared by Bryson Jackson and Corey Gordon Jr. Jackson is a seventh-year senior who played JACK last season. Gordon Jr. is a former three-star redshirt freshman who’s extremely versatile.
Tevin Williams III and Chateau Reed will be Baylor’s two cornerbacks. Williams III is a smaller, faster corner with a little more game experience. Reed is a redshirt junior who has struggled to find playing time in his time in Waco. Reed is 6’2″ and a former wide receiver, so look for him to play sticky press coverage for the Bears. Devin Lemear will be their FS. He was extremely productive in his redshirt freshman season and looks to build on that this season. Devyn Bobby will start at the other safety position. He rarely played last season, but the departure of multiple safeties above him in the depth chart led to him winning the starting role.
The Case for Texas State
Texas State is going into this game as heavy underdogs and Bobcat fans should have reasonable expectations. If TXST keeps the game close that should be taken as a good sign.
If you are searching for a path to victory on paper, it’s there.
Baylor lacks experience at defensive back. Outside of a very talented player in Devin Lemear, the secondary appears to be a little bit raw. With the receivers that Texas State has and the scheme that Kinne runs, there is a possibility that the Bobcats can pair a reliable passing attack with an effective run game against backup nose tackles.
If it’s Finley at quarterback, the intermediate passing game will be important. Look for Konner Fox, the running backs, and the slot receivers to get fed the ball and serve as a safety blanket. They will try to draw the defense in so that they can take the top off down the field. Whoever the quarterback is has to limit mistakes.
When Hornsby is the one in the backfield, look for Texas State to spread out and force Baylor to make tackles in the open field. With Hornsby as a running threat, the Bobcats can force an aggressive and violent Baylor defense to stop and think. Again, quarterbacks must limit mistakes.
If Texas State is going to win this game, they will likely have to get out to a fast start. If the offense can put up points early and the defense can hold, they will put all the pressure on Baylor’s offense. Most importantly, the Bobcat D will need to force the bears to throw the ball. Baylor ran the ball nearly 40 times last season, that can’t happen again.
If the Bobcats can pressure Shapen, an inconsistent quarterback into leading the offense behind an offensive line that doesn’t have experience with each other they could win the game. Texas State needs to limit the damage and try to pounce early.
Scheme vs Scheme
The most exciting aspect of this game is G.J. Kinne’s offense taking on Dave Aranda’s defense. Two coaches who garner much respect on their respective sides of the ball.
Baylor runs a hybrid base nickel look that is common in college football. On their depth chart, they list three true defensive linemen with a JACK who is a hybrid standup end/rushing linebacker type of player. This gives them a de facto 4-2-5 look, similar to what Texas State looks like on defense. They run a lot of split safety coverage, cover 2 and cover 4.
G.J. Kinne’s offense puts a lot of responsibility on the quarterback. It’s a complicated scheme, and it allows the QB to see the whole field and find the best look. They have a handful of staple plays that make up their attack, and they force the defense to spread out and cover both the frontside and the backside of the concept. He summons defenses to cheat and punishes them when they do.
On this play, UIW QB Lindsey Scott Jr. had the option to hand it off, but instead he utilizes the freedom he has in the scheme to get the ball to the receiver on the edge with a boundary screen pass. The defense ends up crashing in to prevent a big play, but this shows the kind of responsibility quarterbacks have in Kinne’s scheme.
The play design on this Screen & Go is beautiful. In a double stack formation, UIW sets up as if they are going to throw another tempo boundary screen like they had done multiple times this game. The CB plays aggressively, leaving him vulnerable to the Screen & Go. The wide receiver lined up closer to the line of scrimmage pulls the safety towards him, and the WR that was set up for the screen is able to burn the CB for a touchdown. This is just one of the many different ways Kinne and Leftwich’s offense can hurt opponents.
This is how Baylor defended Garrett Riley’s explosive TCU offense for most of their game last season. They sit in a cover 4 shell with the corners on islands. The corners protect the boundaries and try to prevent anything vertical, and the safeties will try to stop throws over the middle of the field.
The two linebackers lined up behind the defensive line defend underneath, and are in the box to crash down in run defense. The nickel back, lined up between the slot receiver and offensive tackle can actually fall into the run fit on plays that come in his direction, rather than slide back into coverage like most. This is how Dave Aranda likes to manipulate the numbers to defend the run against offenses with dangerous passing attacks. Look for the safeties to come crashing down in run support as well.
With a look like this, Baylor gives up passes underneath while limiting big play opportunities. Against high-octane offenses like TCU, and potentially Texas State, Aranda is comfortable keeping the top on the opposing offense.
Baylor is an extremely aggressive defense, they fly to the ball. I anticipate them to be much improved from last year when they were a surprisingly mediocre group.
Closing Thoughts
Baylor looks to be an improved team on paper, and this is the first game in a new era for the Bobcats. Obviously, expectations for Texas State should be reasonable, a win against the Bears is not likely. I am expecting Baylor to win by multiple scores, but I don’t need a TXST win to consider the game a success in my mind.
I am looking for improvement and a more dynamic offense that did not pack much of a punch last season. With a coach like Kinne, along with playmakers that were added to the team, more explosiveness should be expected.
On defense, I hope to see continued improvement from veterans like Ben Bell and Jordan Revels and immediate impact made by new additions like Dan Foster Jr. and Sam Latham. Lastly, this is a team that added a lot of players to the secondary, a unit that the coaching staff is fired up about. Hopefully, we can see some athletic, and exciting plays out of the group.
Football season is finally here, the G.J. Kinne era will officially be underway this Saturday. Even with the odds of victory looking slim, there is a lot for Texas State fans to be excited about. This week will be a preview of what is to come later this season, including week 2 in the Battle for I-35.
