SAN MARCOS- The Texas State Bobcats (3-2) are hosting the Troy Trojans (3-2) this Saturday primetime at 7 p.m. at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+ and the Bobcats come into the game as comfortable favorites.
The matchup between the Trojans and the Bobcats will be the second conference game for both teams. Texas State is coming off a devastating loss in their conference opener to Arkansas State, while Troy is coming off an emotional overtime victory against South Alabama. This feels like a must-win game for Texas State, as G.J. Kinne, Texas State’s head coach, is now 9-8 in his tenure at Texas State against Sun Belt Conference opponents.
“Troy is a super talented team. They are much improved from a year ago,” Kinne said. “We have our work cut out for ourselves. I’m glad we got them at home. The homecoming crowd will be big for us.”
Kinne is 0-3 coming off a bye week, excluding the postseason, where he’s 2-0 with a pair of First Responder Bowl wins. He’s also 4-5 in the month of October at Texas State, reflecting his midseason struggles. In the last two seasons, the Bobcats started hot and ended hot, but there was an evident midseason lull, and a pattern has emerged as the same is true for this season.
Turning the page to Troy this week, who the Bobcats beat for the first time in program history last year, it’s a must-win game on homecoming weekend. The Bobcats can ill afford to lose another conference game and expect to contend for the Sun Belt Conference. In order to accomplish their goal, the defense, led by defensive coordinator Dexter McCoil, is going to have to step up. The Texas State defense is dead last in the Sun Belt in turnovers, forced fumbles, and recovered fumbles. The lone pick they got came in garbage time against Nicholls State.
“My faith will never waver. I know we are going to get some takeaways, and when they do, they are going to come in bunches,” McCoil said.
Likewise, tackles for loss and sacks are down compared to the last two seasons. Overall, a lack of defensive production is taking place on the field right now. That said, the defense turned in its best performance of the season against Arkansas State, recording five sacks and eight tackles for loss — a sign of progress in that department. McCoil, being in his fourth season as a collegiate coach, is still very young, and Texas State fans are experiencing some of that learning curve, but there is no mistake the defense has to get better starting this weekend with Troy coming to town.
Troy is 3-2, 1-0 in conference play, played at the time a No. 8 Clemson team and lost 27-16, has wins over South Alabama, Nicholls, and Buffalo. The Trojans average 21.6 points per game, 168.8 passing yards per game, 154 rushing yards a game, and 322.8 yards of offense per game. The Trojans have seven passing touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns, and six interceptions thrown on the season through five games.
Meanwhile, Texas State averages 35 points a game, 222 passing yards a game, 235 rushing yards per game, and 457 yards per game. The Bobcats have 16 rushing touchdowns, seven passing touchdowns, and just one interception thrown through five games.
It’s evident that Texas State has a more dynamic offense than does Troy. The key to Texas State’s success lies in the defense — can they generate turnovers and get stops when the game gets tight? That is the question hovering over Texas State right now, because the offense has been cooking despite a few shaky drives last game. Texas State’s offense is ranked second in the Sun Belt in points and in total yards, a clear night-and-day difference between the two sides of the ball.
Quarterback Brad Jackson is a star — no debating that. However, in his first game he threw for four touchdowns; in the last four he had only three. A little concerning, but with Chris Dawn Jr. back healthy, an explosive wideout, expect those passing touchdown numbers to increase.
“I wasn’t that involved because I was dealing with injuries,” Dawn Jr. said. “It just took me a minute to get rolling, but I’m about to get rolling real soon here.”
Despite Dawn’s injuries, he still averaged 20 yards per catch and had five catches in the loss last week to Arkansas State. On the flipside, Troy, led by junior quarterback Tucker Kilcrease, leans on their ground game. Kilcrease has two rushing touchdowns on the season, to go with 149 yards, 416 passing yards and 3 interceptions. Kilcrease was not the starter for Troy. The starter Goose Crowder went down in their loss to Memphis with an injury. However, Kilcrease is a solid backup and Texas State’s defense will have to execute their gameplan to stop him.
The route to victory is clear for the Bobcats. Marginal adjustments on defense have to be made, and the offense has to continue to hum and not wait until the fourth quarter to get rolling. Say what you may about the defense, but the offense was stagnant for a large portion of the game last weekend, thanks to key adjustments made by Arkansas State. The ’Cats scored only 10 points through three quarters. Heading into the matchup with Troy, complementary football is a top priority.
If the Bobcats lose, they can just about kiss any chance of becoming Sun Belt champions goodbye. However, a win would put them right back as one of the contenders. Coming off such a frustrating loss, expect a product similar to what was displayed versus Nicholls State. The homecoming crowd is sure to get the juices flowing and fire the Bobcats up en route to victory and their first conference win of the season.
