ULM Preview: No where but up

Series Overview: Louisiana-Monroe leads Texas State 12-4

Last Meeting: During a Thursday night matchup on ESPNU, the Warhawks scored with 1:46 left in the game to seal a 24-14 win over the Bobcats

Last week’s double-overtime loss was tough to swallow. That is all that I’m going to say about last weekend because it’s done and over with and it’s time to focus on moving forward.

The Bobcats open up conference play on the road against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks Saturday night in a game that will again be on ESPNU.

Key Factors

1)  Offense making big steps

Despite the 0-2 start, Texas State’s offense has gotten significantly better.

After racking up 416 yards against SMU, 474 yards against UTSA and averaging 36 points per game, this is quite possibly the best start the Bobcat offense has had in a very long time. We need to see Texas State continue some of that momentum.

Last weekend’s game tape of the ULM defense is a little bit tricky to gauge considering Army runs the triple option attack incredibly well.

Given that Brock Sturges and Calvin Hill have become a premier duo in the Bobcat offense, Texas State could look to the ground game to gash the Warhawks who gave up 436 rushing yards to the Black Knights. Add in a talented Bobcat receiver core, including breakout performer Jermiah Haydel and this has the potential to be a field day.

The question that remains on everyone’s mind is…

2)  Who starts at Quarterback?

In a normal situation Brady McBride would probably get the nod heading into Saturday. However, the pandemic has thrown a wrench into everything and the Texas State QB room is no exception.

After McBride went out due to Covid protocol last weekend, it was Tyler Vitt who ALSO had to sit out during the SMU game due to Covid tracing that was the next man up. McBride was present at practice this week and reportedly took snaps with the first-string offense, but the question of whether he can play this weekend is up in the air.

Vitt had arguably his best performance yet as a Bobcat against UTSA, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdown passes. It was evident that second half adjustments allowed Vitt to lead a stunning comeback but the coaching staff must build on that in the instance he is needed again. Vitt’s gutsy performance gave some confidence that Texas State’s offense, with the coaching staff and the tools behind him, will be in good hands.

3)  Bounce Back for the Defense?

The good news is that Texas State’s defense isn’t facing Shane Buechele or Sincere McCormick again and will instead square off against a ULM offense that is having to replace its best player, Caleb Evans.

The loss of Evans for the Warhawks was a big one as he threw for 9,513 yards and 58 TDs over his career. However, ULM will be returning Josh Johnson who ran for 1,298 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2019.

The Warhawks struggled against Army, mustering just seven points against the Black Knights while gaining 200 yards of offense. By comparison, the ULM offense averaged 460 yards per game in 2019.

4)  On Edge

That was the feeling during practice according to Coach Jake Spavital when describing the players’ current mood after last weekend’s narrow loss.. And he is absolutely right. The Texas State fan base is in need of a winner. The coaches know and the players know it. The UTSA game was a gut punch to Bobcat fans everywhere and now it’s gut check time.

ULM is another hurdle the Bobcats haven’t been able to clear in a while. The Warhawks have had the jump on Texas State despite lacking the resources of conference peers and have won four straight in the series, with the last win for Texas State coming in 2015. This will be the 17th meeting between the two schools.

A convincing win to start conference play would be a step in the right direction if the Bobcats hope to salvage the season.

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Best Case Scenario: Texas State rebounds from their loss to UTSA and comes out with a dominating win over ULM while wiping two weeks of frustration off the table. Tyler Vitt or Brady McBride step up with their best performance to date, while the rushing attack runs wild over the Warhawk defense.

Worst Case Scenario: Eerily similar to the UTSA game, the Bobcats have a slow start and allow ULM to stay in the game. The ULM rushing attack gets going against a thin TXST D-Line allowing the Warhawks to leave the Bobcats stunned for the third consecutive week.