NCAA about to finish leveling the playing field

atxman

Active member
Tend to agree with this guy. Allowing college atletes to transfer more easily is fair for many reasons. But almost unlimited free agency means chaos. And it’s especially bad when NIL rules are so loosey-goosey that they essentially allow schools and their boosters to get the best players money can buy. That’s just colleges and universities fielding professional teams. I have no doubt some folks will like it, especially fans of the elite football schools that will thrive. But it’s destroying what made college football special for millions of other folks.
 

atxman

Active member
So now we see the payroll for Tech’s football team is $25,000 per player and for SMU is $36,000 (same for their basketball players). The numbers will be similar as more FBS schools jump into the arms race. Schools that can’t keep up will fall farther behind, especially when most limits on transfers go away. Players who start off at schools like Texas State and do well will likely transfer to schools with higher payrolls as soon as they can get an offer. I would. Same thing with basketball and other sports. I suppose it will be a golden age for the elite schools (or at least those that have enough rich boosters), but not schools like Texas State. It will also clearly be good for players. My guess is by 2030, and probably much sooner, we’ll see a complete separation between about 60-70 schools (if that many) and everybody else in all sports. SMU will probably once again be elite and have one of the best teams money can buy — and this time legally. But goodbye to any pretense of a level playing field.
 
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carmanjello325

Active member
whats the going rate for salary + bonus for bachelors graduates these days? 60-65k? i dont think 25-36k per yr practically puts you in poverty and is hardly even spending money. i dont think 25-36k is going to be enough to steal our recruits unless we dont give a single dime. if we can find a way to give them a grand a month we arent going to lose recruits over nickels and dimes
 

vp98

Active member
I've really been trying to imagine what the future might look like. Maybe players will come to Texas State and if they are good move on to somebody who pays and/or wins more the next year. Looks like high turnover every year. Its hard to imagine how a school like us builds a consistent program under that scenario. I think it may be up to a coach who is willing to stay and is innovative on using the transfer portal you know, like the one we have but he's gone after this year if he doesn't win at least six games.
 

2centsworth

M&G Gift Contributor
M&G Collective Member
whats the going rate for salary + bonus for bachelors graduates these days? 60-65k? i dont think 25-36k per yr practically puts you in poverty and is hardly even spending money. i dont think 25-36k is going to be enough to steal our recruits unless we dont give a single dime. if we can find a way to give them a grand a month we arent going to lose recruits over nickels and dimes
$2000 - $3000/month is a lot more discretionary income than around 80% of Americans. These kids are living "large", which is going to distract them even more from preparing for life after football. Now that money is involved, kicking these kids to the curb after they've served their useful purpose won't feel so bad.

I suspect that Texas State will make a living off kids who don't have their scholarships renewed at P5 programs.

As far as NIL, we just need a big enough fund to keep some key players.
 
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atxman

Active member
Quality players will not be ”a dime a dozen” when well-funded “collectives” at other schools are all paying players. Tech and SMU will hardly be the only schools with every player on a substantial payroll. Underestimating the disruptive impact all of this will have in coming years is a big mistake. Schools without the funding to keep up will be effectively or officially relegated to a lower division. Unless folks with deep pockets suddenly open their wallets (or their companies’ wallets) to create a substantial NIL fund, Texas State is likely to be one of those schools. I‘m very pessimistic — who would those people and companies even be? But I would love to be proved wrong.
 

carmanjello325

Active member
Quality players will not be ”a dime a dozen” when well-funded “collectives” at other schools are all paying players. Tech and SMU will hardly be the only schools with every player on a substantial payroll. Underestimating the disruptive impact all of this will have in coming years is a big mistake. Schools without the funding to keep up will be effectively or officially relegated to a lower division. Unless folks with deep pockets suddenly open their wallets (or their companies’ wallets) to create a substantial NIL fund, Texas State is likely to be one of those schools. I‘m very pessimistic — who would those people and companies even be? But I would love to be proved wrong.
these funds would have already existed to some extent had we beat usa, illinois and gata in 2014 and donors had some sort of floor for the program moving forward but that never happened

the fund of mccoy building supplies
the fund of george strait
the fund of paul goldschmidt
the fund of randy rogers
 

atxman

Active member
these funds would have already existed to some extent had we beat usa, illinois and gata in 2014 and donors had some sort of floor for the program moving forward but that never happened

the fund of mccoy building supplies
the fund of george strait
the fund of paul goldschmidt
the fund of randy rogers
Not sure I agree with or even understand all of what you just said, but it no longer matters what happened or didn’t happen in 2014. We can’t change the past. All that matters now is whether Texas State can attract the necessary resources going forward to be relevant in the new major college football world — at least at the level Coastal and Louisiana have been the last couple of years. Under the new system, that’s inconceivable to me. But I would love to be able to say in five years that I was dead wrong. Meanwhile, I’ll just hope we can find a way to be competitive in what will be the new second tier — a tier even further behind than the G5 is compared to the P5 today. FBS seems to be racing toward something like the split between DI and DI-AA in the late ‘70s, formally or informally.
 

codestar

M&G Gift Contributor
Not sure I agree with or even understand all of what you just said, but it no longer matters what happened or didn’t happen in 2014. We can’t change the past. All that matters now is whether Texas State can attract the necessary resources going forward to be relevant in the new major college football world — at least at the level Coastal and Louisiana have been the last couple of years. Under the new system, that’s inconceivable to me. But I would love to be able to say in five years that I was dead wrong. Meanwhile, I’ll just hope we can find a way to be competitive in what will be the new second tier — a tier even further behind than the G5 is compared to the P5 today. FBS seems to be racing toward something like the split between DI and DI-AA in the late ‘70s, formally or informally.
I don’t think G5 will fall further behind and my reason is that there aren’t more schools and the amount of players is a about the same. There are guys who will want to play FBS ball without NIL because it’s the best shot they got at a possible NFL career and they just don’t have offers at a P5.
 

atxman

Active member
I don’t think G5 will fall further behind and my reason is that there aren’t more schools and the amount of players is a about the same. There are guys who will want to play FBS ball without NIL because it’s the best shot they got at a possible NFL career and they just don’t have offers at a P5.
I really hope you’re right. But I’m not optimistic. I think G5 players who do well will get poached by a school with a good payroll. G5 could become just entry level for players who didn’t initially get an offer from a high-paying school. We likely won’t see a Cincinnati breakthrough season again. And I doubt a Coastal or Louisiana will sniff a Top 25 spot again in 5-10 years. The talent separation will be too big.
 
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TxSt1992

Active member
I really hope you’re right. But I’m not optimistic.
On the plus side, the Sun Belt has a very bright future within the G5 subdivision. Any decision about moving up or down within different platforms will more than likely be done at the conference level. The SBC-East is already as strong as anything in the G5, the SBC-West needs a few years to catch up but once they do the Sun Belt champion will be competing for one of the NY6 bowls. I just hope that TXST becomes a net positive help for the conference. I would hate for us to be in the bottom riding everyone's coat tails.
 

atxman

Active member
All that said, I do think there’s the possibility that G5 becomes a place where traditional, non-professional college football survives. It won’t get nearly the attention that the top division gets. There likely won’t even be much competition at some point between the two divisions except for occasional pay games like we see between FBS and FCS now. But G5 schools still have lots of alums and fans. If they can make their games and stadium atmospheres entertaining and affordable for families, they have a chance to remain something better than FCS.
 

atxman

Active member
On the plus side, the Sun Belt has a very bright future within the G5 subdivision. Any decision about moving up or down within different platforms will more than likely be done at the conference level. The SBC-East is already as strong as anything in the G5, the SBC-West needs a few years to catch up but once they do the Sun Belt champion will be competing for one of the NY6 bowls. I just hope that TXST becomes a net positive help for the conference. I would hate for us to be in the bottom riding everyone's coat tails.
I think you’re mostly right that the Sun Belt has a bright future in the G5 subdivision. But once the talent separation grows to a certain point, schools in the G5 subdivision will never be in a NY6 bowl. Those bowls will be reserved for the power division. After all, a big reason for all this change is that the elite schools think they’ve been carrying everyone else financially (because they’re the big draw). They don’t want to share anymore. They will monopolize the major bowls. In fact, those bowls will probably be their expanded playoff. What’s happening now isn’t just a minor reshuffling. The disruption will be total before this is over.
 

atxman

Active member
One other thing to consider: The Vanderbilts, Dukes and Washington States of today’s P5 world had better watch out. There’s no guarantee they will be part of the new elite subdivision in 10 years. Tradition will carry them only so far. OU and (especially) Texas wanted out of the Big 12 in part because they looked at schools like Baylor, TCU, Kansas and Kansas State as financial parasites sucking at their teats (at least in football, where it counts). If market metrics are going to be deciding factors going forward, small market school’s might find themselves on the outside as well.
 

atxman

Active member
Good story about the hundreds of thousands of dollars UT spent on official recuiting visits to entice athletes in June. Luxury hotel rooms, lavish meals, gifts, nonstop entertainment, etc. Texas is only doing what all the richest schools are doing, of course. On top of that are NIL contracts to entice recruits. With the coaches and so many others getting rich from college football, it’s hard to argue that these teenagers shouldn’t get their cut. But this is what college football has become. A level playing field was always a fantasy. But the imbalance is really out in the open now.

 
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