Welcome to the final installment of our 2019 Season Preview. I give my final thoughts and make a bold prediction for the Bobcats first year under new Head Coach Jake Spavital.
To sum things up, expectations are high moving into 2019. This will be the strongest and deepest Bobcat roster since 2015. It is a completely different situation than when Withers took over the Bobcats for the 2016 season. In 2016, the Bobcats had an FCS level scholarship count and we are finally back up to 83 of the 85 available scholarships. At the FCS level, teams are allowed to sign up to 63 players to a scholarship. The Bobcats had just 62 on scholarship in 2016 and 68 in 2017. We’ve had one of the younger teams in the country since then as we rebuilt the roster and depth. Now, we will have one of the oldest and most experienced teams in the country.
The Bobcats aren’t just returning more experienced players either. They are returning talented players. In 2017, the Bobcats signed the number 1 recruiting class in the Sun Belt. That class also included a bunch of players we have covered over the past couple days. Jaylin Nelson, John Brannon, Gjemar Daniels, Josh Newman, Caeveon Patton, Jeremiah Haydel, Reece Jordan, Kieston Roach, Jaylen Gipson, Jakharious Smith, Kordell Rodgers, London Harris, Caleb Twyford, and Tanner King are all players from that recruiting class. That’s a lot of high impact talent that the Bobcats will have on hand for 2019 and that’s just from one recruiting class.
Jake Spavital and the Bobcats have a chance at something great in 2019. With such a strong returning group, a relatively unknown offense, and a fan base eager for wins, the ceiling for this team is almost unlimited. There have been several miraculous turnarounds in college football history and the Bobcats have a chance to do just that. Teams like the 2009/2010 Miami Ohio team that went just 1-11 in 2009. The very next year, they finished 10-4 with a MAC Championship and a GoDaddy.com Bowl win. Or the 2012/2013 Auburn Tigers who went 3-9 in 2009 and won 12 games the very next year on their way to play in the BCS National Championship. Another more recent example is the 2015 UCF team that finished 0-12 and just two years later finished undefeated with an NCAA recognized national championship. History is littered with teams that have made miraculous turnarounds like this and the Bobcats are set up to do just that.
In every one of these situations, it took total buy in from the team and a new coach that brought in a fresh perspective and new culture. The Bobcats can do just that in 2019 and they have all the tools to make it happen.
If Zac Spavital is able to maintain the strength of the Bobcat defense from a year ago, or even improve it with an improved turnover margin like he’s done in previous stops, and the Stitt/Spavital offensive combo can produce an offense that is just marginally better than last season, the Bobcats will win a lot of games in 2019.
With the exception of A&M, every game on the schedule is winnable. Some, very few mind you, have made the argument that even A&M is a winnable game. The argument there is that Kellen Mond (the Aggie quarterback) is inconsistent, throwing just 53% completion percentage in their Spring game. They also turned over a lot of players including their star running back. I however, am not one of the few that believe we will win that game. Unfortunately, A&M has too much depth and too much talent for us to overcome. Can we make it close? Sure, but I don’t see an upset to open the season for the Bobcats. If we are as improved from last year as I believe we will be, the best you can expect in the season opener is a repeat of the 2005 game. The Bobcats dropped that game 44-31 on a Thursday night after making things interesting with a comeback attempt in the 4th quarter. The Bobcats had the opportunity to make it a one possession game with 7 minutes left to play. Unfortunately, they came up 12 yards short and turned the ball over on downs.
However, looking at the rest of the schedule, anything is possible. TXST gets Wyoming at home, then travels to SMU. Followed by three home games against Georgia State, FCS Nicholls State (previous battle for the paddle rival), and ULM. They then have two away games against the two toughest opponents in the West division of the Sun Belt, Arkansas State and ULL. They will then return home for games against South Alabama and Troy. Finally, they wrap their season on the road against Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina.
| Thu, Aug 29 | @ Texas A&M | 7:30 PM |
| Sat, Sep 7 | vs Wyoming | 6:00 PM |
| Sat, Sep 14 | @ SMU | 6:00 PM |
| Sat, Sep 21 | vs Georgia State | TBD |
| Sat, Sep 28 | vs Nicholls | TBD |
| Thu, Oct 10 | vs UL Monroe | 8:15 PM |
| Sat, Oct 26 | @ Arkansas State | 6:00 PM |
| Sat, Nov 2 | @ Louisiana | TBD |
| Sat, Nov 9 | vs South Alabama | TBD |
| Sat, Nov 16 | vs Troy | TBD |
| Sat, Nov 23 | @ Appalachian State | 1:30 PM |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Coastal Carolina | TBD |
Wyoming finished the 2018 season with a 6-6 record and was not selected for a bowl game despite being bowl eligible. Head Coach Craig Bohl will be in his 6th season at Wyoming where he has a losing overall record of 28-35. The Bobcats lost the most recent meeting in Laramie, Wyoming in the 2017 season. The Cowboys hold a 2-1 overall record on the Bobcats with the Bobcats only win being a 42-21 victory in San Marcos during the 2013 season.
SMU finished the previous season with a 5-7 record after losing the final two games of the season. The Bobcats have only played SMU once before this year. That game was in 2008 when the Bobcats were still FCS and SMU won 47-36. This is another winnable game against another struggling G5 opponent.
Georgia State finished the previous season at 2-10 losing their last 7 games in a row including a 40-31 loss to TXST. The series is tied 3-3, but this is a game Texas State can’t afford to lose if it has hopes of a historic turnaround year.
The game against Nicholls State is a long time, now defunct rivalry game. Many Bobcat fans may remember them from our Southland days. The most recent meeting of the two teams was in the 2011 season prior to the Bobcats moving to FBS. The game was mired in controversy as the Nicholls State AD refused to bring the “paddle,” which was used as the annual trophy, to Texas State for the final game. The Bobcats defeated Nicholls 38-12 in that game, but Nicholls still leads the series 16-14. This is another game the Bobcats can’t afford to lose if they want to keep their season on track.
ULM finished 6-6 in 2018 and was another bowl eligible team that did not get selected for a bowl game. The Bobcats lost to ULM last season by a score of 21-14. The Bobcats are on a 3 game losing streak to the Warhawks and will look to end that streak in 2019. The Bobcats and Warhawks have played 6 games since 2013 with ULM holding a 4 games to 3 advantage over the Bobcats. This is another very winnable game for the Bobcats and one of the games that could make or break bowl eligibility for the Bobcats.
Arkansas State is the favorite to win the West division of the Sun Belt heading into 2019. They finished the previous season 8-5 with an overtime loss to Nevada in the Arizona Bowl. The Bobcats lost to Arkansas State in 2018 in a week that saw head coach Withers fired midweek. The Red Wolves have had the Bobcats number since TXST joined the Sun Belt, winning 5 of the 6 matchups. The Bobcats one and only win came in the 2014 season that saw the Bobcats left out of the bowl selections at 7-5, their second bowl eligible season in a row. This will be a difficult game for the Bobcats to win, but if they roll into this one on a 3-5 game winning streak, confidence may be able to carry them to victory.
ULL, who the Bobcats have never beaten, is up next on the schedule. The closest the Bobcats have gotten to a victory was last year when they lost by 15, 42-27 in San Marcos. There’s really no reason the Bobcats shouldn’t have at least 1 win against the Ragin’ Cajuns, other than it being a mentality issue. TXST seems to psych themselves out anytime they line up against ULL. Once again, if they can come into this game with confidence and a chip on their shoulder, they can get their first win against the Ragin’ Cajuns. If not, it will be at least 1 more year the Bobcats have to wait to get this monkey off their back.
South Alabama is a game the Bobcats should have won last year. The Bobcats led by 15 with just over 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter before throwing a pick 6 that gave USA all of the momentum. The Bobcats collapsed down the stretch and gave up 18 points in the 4th quarter with no answer to lose by a final of 41-31. This is a game the Bobcats will be looking for revenge in and it will help that it’s at home. If the Bobcats weren’t able to get a win against ULL or Arkansas State in the previous two weeks, this is a game that can get them back on track.
Next up is Troy. The Trojans finished the 2018 season with a 10-3 record including wins against Big 10 Nebraska and a bowl victory against Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl. This is a team the Bobcats were given no shot to win against in 2018. However, due to the resilient Bobcat defense, they only lost by a score of 12-7. This will be another difficult game for the Bobcats to win, but if last season’s result is any indication, it’s possible. The Bobcats get Troy at home, which should help, but the only chance the Bobcats have in this one is dependent on another defensive showing like they had last season against the Trojans.
Appalachian State is another tough game that is a probable loss for the Bobcats. The Mountaineers finished 2018 with an 11-2 record, with an overtime loss to Penn State, a bowl victory over Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl, and a Sun Belt Championship win.
Finally, the Bobcats wrap up the regular season against Coastal Carolina. The Bobcats didn’t get the opportunity to play Coastal Carolina in 2018, but beat them 27-7 the year before. The Chanticleers are still very new to the FBS level as last season was their first as a full FBS member. In 2017 when the Bobcats beat them, they were just in their second year of transition to FBS and were not eligible for postseason play based on the NCAA transition rules. Despite being new to the Sun Belt and FBS in general, they had a strong showing last season with a few notable wins against UAB (11-3) and ULL (7-7). They still finished the season with a 5-7 overall record, but they won’t be the easy win the Bobcats counted on the last time they faced them.
The Maroon and Golden Prediction: 8-4
| Thu, Aug 29 | @ Texas A&M | 7:30 PM | L |
| Sat, Sep 7 | vs Wyoming | 6:00 PM | W |
| Sat, Sep 14 | @ SMU | 6:00 PM | W |
| Sat, Sep 21 | vs Georgia State | TBD | W |
| Sat, Sep 28 | vs Nicholls | TBD | W |
| Thu, Oct 10 | vs UL Monroe | 8:15 PM | W |
| Sat, Oct 26 | @ Arkansas State | 6:00 PM | L |
| Sat, Nov 2 | @ Louisiana | TBD | W |
| Sat, Nov 9 | vs South Alabama | TBD | W |
| Sat, Nov 16 | vs Troy | TBD | L |
| Sat, Nov 23 | @ Appalachian State | 1:30 PM | L |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Coastal Carolina | TBD | W |
Possible 2 Deep Depth Chart
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