Realignment Super Thread

_x_

M&G Gift Contributor
I think the last part of that tweet touches on something that could be beneficial to the Sun Belt throughout all of this.

ESPN probably has more influence over realignment and college football in general than anyone realizes, or at least cares to acknowledge.

ESPN has the rights to SBC and AAC games. The SBC and ESPN just reached an extension that will see a 50% increase of games on the linear Disney channels (ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU) with at least 40% of those games being on Saturdays. The financials of that deal haven't been released but I can't help but wonder if the timing of that extension is coincidental with this realignment news or not.

I think the ESPN-affiliated leagues may have a leg up on the leagues mostly affiliated with other media companies. ESPN may do what they can to make realignment more of a success for their leagues.
 

SWTRefugee

M&G Gift Contributor
It’s embarrassing that we’ve put ourselves in a place where the thought of being mentioned as a replacement for the Big 12 is laughable.
I still think Tech and OSU bolt leaving the others to scramble elsewhere and the Big 12 to crumble away. Even if the Big 12 somehow miraculously survives, it will be seen as somewhere between the G5 and P5 (4?).
We have been in this place for 40 years. Failure to leverage back to back national championships and go on a quick decline until Fran 1.0 was hired showed that the previous administration could care less about football. Trauth does not care about it and the fan base has done nothing to demand anything different than what we have been getting. Students keep paying to subsidize an inferior product while saying nothing about it. So here we are.
 

slycat

Active member
The thing is even overly successful teams like App St are more likely to be looked over for "market teams". UTSA will always have an advantage over TXST thanks to "marketz".

TXST will stay put or end up in a new version of CUSA that will likely have UNT. In theory Rice and UTSA could go to AAC (Rice unlikely) and UTEP to MWC (unlikely). In the end the SBC will probably be the strongest conference to be in for TXST, Even if we remain on an island. If teams like Georgia St got poached by the AAC, they could try to backfill with USM or UAB. I would hope those teams now realize the SBC is better than CUSA.
 

slycat

Active member
I 100% believe that TXST could have been as good as App St over the years and CCU last year and still be a Big XII longshot. They really don't even care to add Houston unless they absolutely have to. But we should have been better positioned for AAC.
 

LTK5H

M&G Gift Contributor
M&G Collective Member
I 100% believe that TXST could have been as good as App St over the years and CCU last year and still be a Big XII longshot.
This is 100% correct.

I think the B12 leaking that Cinci and Houston are candidates is nothing more than floating a trial balloon to see if they can keep the remaining 8. The problem is that once UT and OU leave the conference, their media revenue drops like a rock. I'm going off the top of my head but it's something like $17M to 9M. AAC is already at $7M per, so in terms of revenue, that's not a lot of incentive.
 

_x_

M&G Gift Contributor
I think the last part of that tweet touches on something that could be beneficial to the Sun Belt throughout all of this.

ESPN probably has more influence over realignment and college football in general than anyone realizes, or at least cares to acknowledge.

ESPN has the rights to SBC and AAC games. The SBC and ESPN just reached an extension that will see a 50% increase of games on the linear Disney channels (ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU) with at least 40% of those games being on Saturdays. The financials of that deal haven't been released but I can't help but wonder if the timing of that extension is coincidental with this realignment news or not.

I think the ESPN-affiliated leagues may have a leg up on the leagues mostly affiliated with other media companies. ESPN may do what they can to make realignment more of a success for their leagues.
Coincidentally I ran across this article just 15 min after I posted that. Which suggests ESPN is controlling this whole thing basically:
 

vp98

Active member
Coincidentally I ran across this article just 15 min after I posted that. Which suggests ESPN is controlling this whole thing basically:
Then why is ESPN expanding their coverage of the SBC?
 

PecosGuy

M&G Gift Contributor
M&G Collective Member
Here’s the deal which ever conference has the most tv money will ultimately determine who adds programs vs who loses programs. Money money money, it’s all about the money. With that said I think the latest ESPN deal has all Sun belt programs in a temporary good spot.
 

TXST04

Active member
So I’m going to assume that the 2026 game at Texas is likely not going to happen as planned. 🙃
The ripple effect reaches far. 😂
 

_x_

M&G Gift Contributor
Not sure they have to make any changes to their out-of-conference schedules other than replacing previously scheduled SEC games.

Big 12 plays a 9-game conference schedule and SEC plays 8, so if anything they'll be looking to add more games. I wonder if UT will start playing FCS teams again, they quit after the last round of realignment but FCS games are a staple of most SEC teams' schedules.
 

TXST04

Active member
Not sure they have to make any changes to their out-of-conference schedules other than replacing previously scheduled SEC games.

Big 12 plays a 9-game conference schedule and SEC plays 8, so if anything they'll be looking to add more games. I wonder if UT will start playing FCS teams again, they quit after the last round of realignment but FCS games are a staple of most SEC teams' schedules.
My personal thoughts on a potential “new normal”post the creation of super conference(s) and why the 2026 game will likely be cancelled.
1. I think they will be headed to less out of conference games to facilitate an expanding playoff.
2. This in turn could lead to better marquee in-conference games where revenue stays in house thus, they won’t be playing or paying G5s as often or at all to build their resumes.
3. Additionally, with the Super Conferences… my thoughts are that losses will become more acceptable, like in the NFL, therefore it’s quality wins / losses that will matter most to help teams stand out.
Just my opinion, but it will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition.
 

vp98

Active member
I don't understand your question.

SBC churned out a good season last year from a viewership standpoint by all accounts, ESPN decided to extend the contract and add more linear games.
You answered my question, thanks. However this does not support the theory that Disney and ESPN is working towards cornering the big boys in college football without regard for everybody else.
 

LTK5H

M&G Gift Contributor
M&G Collective Member
Big 12 plays a 9-game conference schedule and SEC plays 8
Think w/ 16 teams, it has to be 9. If they go 4x4 pods, that's 3 vs your pod, 2 vs each other pod, which gives you a H/H w/ everyone in the conference every 4yrs. That's what I've seen referenced the most.

That's 14 games off the OOC schedule, so it's not huge, but if it does go to 4 x 16 conferences, that's all the bigs playing only 3 OOC, that definitely affects G5. In the short term, TX and OU are going to have to dump some games, but I'm not sure we are looking to schedule, UGA, Bama, LSU or Florida. Tennessee maybe. We did schedule FSU though, so....again - big opportunity for Don here! :D:D
 

Goldievirtuoso

M&G Gift Contributor
You answered my question, thanks. However this does not support the theory that Disney and ESPN is working towards cornering the big boys in college football without regard for everybody else.
Maybe they see us as the SEC Lite (SBC: the Diet SEC?)? We have a similar footprint and the SBC does play decent football. Maybe that footprint watches the most college football? I dunno, I’m just grabbing at anything here.

For sure ESPN is to blame for all of this…. But I am glad that SBC is in bed with them. I hope it all works out for the best for TXST.
 

SWTRefugee

M&G Gift Contributor
Your comment is soooo Bobcat. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve got no love for UTSA. But let’s be honest . . . all we do where they’re concerned is talk shite. We arrogantly act like we’re sooo superior to that program. Yet, in the time that they’ve existed, all they’ve done is lapped us, like 2 or 3 times.
They have more wins than us.
They have more bowl appearances than us.
and in head to head competition, we’re 0 fer against them.

”On your left…” “BEEP .. BEEP.”
So true and so sad. They were no basically a community college when I was at SWT but they just added water (and a good coach and AD) and developed a program where there was none before- as did Ga State, USA, Coastal, FIU, Florida Atlantic, UCF- all with greater success in the short time they’ve been in business.
 
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