Waited a bit on this game thread to see if they'd cancel with the icy roads but as of this writing (11:30ish AM) looks like we're still on. League-leading App State visits San Marcos for a crucial game in the SBC standings.
*UPDATE*
JUST ANNOUNCED AS I WAS FINISHING THIS UP THAT GAME TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO 5PM
Thursday Schedule
Appalachian State @ Texas State (-4) - 5pm
South Alabama (-3) @ Georgia Southern - 6pm
Troy @ Georgia State (-6.5) - 6pm
Louisiana (-6.5) @ Little Rock - 6:30pm
ULM @ Arkansas State (-8) - 7pm
Coastal Carolina @ UTA - CANCELLED
The Coastal/UTA game being cancelled is good for Little Rock and Georgia State who just got back above the 80% threshold and are trying to stay there. Us also, considering we're cutting it close. If our game gets cancelled tonight it would not be good for us in the standings.
Conference Standings
1. Appalachian State 8-2
2. Arkansas State 5-2
3. South Alabama/Troy 5-3
5. Texas State 4-3
6. UTA 5-5
7. Coastal Carolina/Louisiana 4-5
9. Georgia Southern 3-5
10. Georgia State/Little Rock 2-4
12. ULM 2-8
NET Rankings
123. South Alabama (-10)
135. Arkansas State (+14)
140. Texas State (+2)
149. Coastal Carolina (-8)
150. App State (+2)
172. Troy (+10)
194. Louisiana (-11)
219. Georgia Southern (+5)
221. UTA (+6)
231. Georgia State (+16)
284. ULM (-14)
308. Little Rock (-4)
TXST News
As previously mentioned, App State is somewhat surprisingly leading the conference past the halfway point of conference play. To go along with their 8-2 SBC record they are 14-9 overall. Nothing stands out in their non-conference schedule. They beat all the bad teams they played and lost to all the good teams. Their best win on the season is probably on the road at South Alabama. Their worst losses are probably an early season loss at home to Charlotte or on the road a few weeks ago at Troy.
They went 17-12 last year overall but just 7-8 in SBC play to finish in 4th in the East. They caught fire however in the SBC tournament (beat TXST along the way) to make the NCAA tournament where they lost a play-in game to Norfolk State. App was picked to finish 4th in the SBC this year, but did receive 2 first-place votes in the poll so this success wasn't unexpected by everyone.
Going into the season the player to watch was definitely 6'2" Sr. G Justin Forrest. Forrest is the 3rd-leading scorer in App history and the 15th leading scorer in SBC history. Forrest was a 2nd-team All-SBC performer last year and was named a preseason 1st-team selection this year. 2 years ago he was a 1st-team selection as well after averaging 17.3 PPG. However, he's just 4th on the team in scoring this year with 9.2 PPG, which in his 5th season at App is his lowest total in any season yet. Forrest has only started in 13 of App's 23 games this year and has been coming off the bench lately as well. His 30.9% FG% is the lowest on the team of anyone getting significant minutes and his 23.3% 3-point% is just downright bad. It's kind of odd to see App having such a great year while their usual best player seems to be having a down year but that's what's happening. Still, I've seen Forrest play enough to know not to sleep on him. He's one of the most clutch players in the league and has hit plenty of big shots in his career. With the game on the line, he's still likely to get the ball.
The leading scorer this season has been 6'3" Sr. G Adrian Delph. Delph is putting up 17.2 PPG to put him 3rd in the conference. His 43.6% FG% is 8th-best in the league of anyone with 193 FG attempts or more. His 39.9% 3-point % is 2nd best in the conference of anyone with 114 or more 3-point attempts and his 67 3-point FGs made is best in the league by 11. He's also averaging 4.4 defensive rebounds per game to put him 8th in the SBC so he's contributing in other areas as well. Delph has played more minutes than anyone else in the Sun Belt this year. He's started all 23 games and plays 34.3 MPG so he rarely leaves the court.
The only other player in double figures is 6'5" Jr. F Donovan Gregory, who's averaging 10.1 PPG. Down low 6'8" Sr. F James Lewis, Jr. is 8th in the SBC with 6.2 RPG, his 2.9 offensive rebounds per game are 4th best in the league and he's contributing 5.9 PPG. 6'0" Graduate PG Michael Almonacy is also having a nice season with top 10 marks in the league in assists (3.3 per game, 10th) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.1, 6th) while contributing 9.7 PPG (3rd best on the team behind Delph and Gregory) while playing 31.7 MPG (7th most in the conference).
Despite being on top of the conference standings, this is the slowest team in the league averaging a conference-low 67.4 PPG. As you'd maybe expect however they have the best scoring defense in the league at 62.7 PPG. That's a spot usually reserved for TXST, who I'm willing to bet has led the league in that category for multiple years in a row (Bobcats currently 2nd behind App giving up 63.2 PPG). Expect a low scoring affair as neither of these teams play fast.
A few other areas of strength for App:
- Allow opponents to shoot just 29.9% from 3.
- Average just 9.9 turnovers per game, by far the best in the league and likely a huge reason for their success. They're 2.9 per game ahead of 2nd place.
- Lead the league in defensive rebound % as they collect 74.7% of their potential defensive rebounds.
Some weaknesses:
- Worst FT shooting team in the league at just 64.3%.
- Only average 12.5 assists per game, however a lot of this is likely contributed to their pace.
- Average a league-low 5.9 steals per game, again some of this likely contributed to pace however.
Last Meeting/Series History
The last meeting was a bad one for Texas State. Entering the tournament as the #1 seed out of the West and getting a bye into the quarterfinals, the Bobcats lost to App, the #4 seed from the East, 76-73 in OT. Texas State hit four 3s in the final 26 seconds of regulation and Asberry hit a crazy shot to send the game to OT, but the Bobcats couldn't pull it out in the extra time:
Prior to that game, TXST had won 4 straight, the most recent win was that 2020 SBC quarterfinals win. These teams didn't play in the regular season last year so the last two meetings have both been SBC tournament quarterfinal games. Texas State holds a slim 8-7 lead overall in the series and are 5-2 in San Marcos.
Betting Odds
Texas State is a 4-point favorite at home. Sounds about right but if that gets up to 5 or 6 I'm gonna put something on App to cover the way we've been playing lately.
App State Message Board
*UPDATE*
JUST ANNOUNCED AS I WAS FINISHING THIS UP THAT GAME TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO 5PM
Thursday Schedule
Appalachian State @ Texas State (-4) - 5pm
South Alabama (-3) @ Georgia Southern - 6pm
Troy @ Georgia State (-6.5) - 6pm
Louisiana (-6.5) @ Little Rock - 6:30pm
ULM @ Arkansas State (-8) - 7pm
Coastal Carolina @ UTA - CANCELLED
The Coastal/UTA game being cancelled is good for Little Rock and Georgia State who just got back above the 80% threshold and are trying to stay there. Us also, considering we're cutting it close. If our game gets cancelled tonight it would not be good for us in the standings.
Conference Standings
1. Appalachian State 8-2
2. Arkansas State 5-2
3. South Alabama/Troy 5-3
5. Texas State 4-3
6. UTA 5-5
7. Coastal Carolina/Louisiana 4-5
9. Georgia Southern 3-5
10. Georgia State/Little Rock 2-4
12. ULM 2-8
NET Rankings
123. South Alabama (-10)
135. Arkansas State (+14)
140. Texas State (+2)
149. Coastal Carolina (-8)
150. App State (+2)
172. Troy (+10)
194. Louisiana (-11)
219. Georgia Southern (+5)
221. UTA (+6)
231. Georgia State (+16)
284. ULM (-14)
308. Little Rock (-4)
TXST News
- Texas State is coming off a 58-53 win over UTA in San Marcos on Saturday to improve the overall record to 13-6. The Bobcats are now 4-3 in conference play and the win moved us up from a tie for 6th to alone in 5th place.
- Starting SF/Wing Shelby Adams played his 134th game Saturday against UTA to break Nijal Pearson's record for most games ever played in a Bobcat uniform. Congrats to Adams on a solid career for TXST.
- Saturday's crowd of 3,587 was the highest so far of the season. Hopefully that sparks a trend of improved attendance for the rest of the season. After tonight that is, as I'm sure the winter weather will keep most fans away for this one. Expect a very sparse crowd tonight, it may be like a scrimmage inside Strahan. Attendance was 6,308 last time we played App in Strahan (2nd largest crowd in program history) in the SBC tourney quarterfinals in 2020 just before Covid shut the sports world down. Don't expect that kind of atmosphere again.
As previously mentioned, App State is somewhat surprisingly leading the conference past the halfway point of conference play. To go along with their 8-2 SBC record they are 14-9 overall. Nothing stands out in their non-conference schedule. They beat all the bad teams they played and lost to all the good teams. Their best win on the season is probably on the road at South Alabama. Their worst losses are probably an early season loss at home to Charlotte or on the road a few weeks ago at Troy.
They went 17-12 last year overall but just 7-8 in SBC play to finish in 4th in the East. They caught fire however in the SBC tournament (beat TXST along the way) to make the NCAA tournament where they lost a play-in game to Norfolk State. App was picked to finish 4th in the SBC this year, but did receive 2 first-place votes in the poll so this success wasn't unexpected by everyone.
Going into the season the player to watch was definitely 6'2" Sr. G Justin Forrest. Forrest is the 3rd-leading scorer in App history and the 15th leading scorer in SBC history. Forrest was a 2nd-team All-SBC performer last year and was named a preseason 1st-team selection this year. 2 years ago he was a 1st-team selection as well after averaging 17.3 PPG. However, he's just 4th on the team in scoring this year with 9.2 PPG, which in his 5th season at App is his lowest total in any season yet. Forrest has only started in 13 of App's 23 games this year and has been coming off the bench lately as well. His 30.9% FG% is the lowest on the team of anyone getting significant minutes and his 23.3% 3-point% is just downright bad. It's kind of odd to see App having such a great year while their usual best player seems to be having a down year but that's what's happening. Still, I've seen Forrest play enough to know not to sleep on him. He's one of the most clutch players in the league and has hit plenty of big shots in his career. With the game on the line, he's still likely to get the ball.
The leading scorer this season has been 6'3" Sr. G Adrian Delph. Delph is putting up 17.2 PPG to put him 3rd in the conference. His 43.6% FG% is 8th-best in the league of anyone with 193 FG attempts or more. His 39.9% 3-point % is 2nd best in the conference of anyone with 114 or more 3-point attempts and his 67 3-point FGs made is best in the league by 11. He's also averaging 4.4 defensive rebounds per game to put him 8th in the SBC so he's contributing in other areas as well. Delph has played more minutes than anyone else in the Sun Belt this year. He's started all 23 games and plays 34.3 MPG so he rarely leaves the court.
The only other player in double figures is 6'5" Jr. F Donovan Gregory, who's averaging 10.1 PPG. Down low 6'8" Sr. F James Lewis, Jr. is 8th in the SBC with 6.2 RPG, his 2.9 offensive rebounds per game are 4th best in the league and he's contributing 5.9 PPG. 6'0" Graduate PG Michael Almonacy is also having a nice season with top 10 marks in the league in assists (3.3 per game, 10th) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.1, 6th) while contributing 9.7 PPG (3rd best on the team behind Delph and Gregory) while playing 31.7 MPG (7th most in the conference).
Despite being on top of the conference standings, this is the slowest team in the league averaging a conference-low 67.4 PPG. As you'd maybe expect however they have the best scoring defense in the league at 62.7 PPG. That's a spot usually reserved for TXST, who I'm willing to bet has led the league in that category for multiple years in a row (Bobcats currently 2nd behind App giving up 63.2 PPG). Expect a low scoring affair as neither of these teams play fast.
A few other areas of strength for App:
- Allow opponents to shoot just 29.9% from 3.
- Average just 9.9 turnovers per game, by far the best in the league and likely a huge reason for their success. They're 2.9 per game ahead of 2nd place.
- Lead the league in defensive rebound % as they collect 74.7% of their potential defensive rebounds.
Some weaknesses:
- Worst FT shooting team in the league at just 64.3%.
- Only average 12.5 assists per game, however a lot of this is likely contributed to their pace.
- Average a league-low 5.9 steals per game, again some of this likely contributed to pace however.
Last Meeting/Series History
The last meeting was a bad one for Texas State. Entering the tournament as the #1 seed out of the West and getting a bye into the quarterfinals, the Bobcats lost to App, the #4 seed from the East, 76-73 in OT. Texas State hit four 3s in the final 26 seconds of regulation and Asberry hit a crazy shot to send the game to OT, but the Bobcats couldn't pull it out in the extra time:
Prior to that game, TXST had won 4 straight, the most recent win was that 2020 SBC quarterfinals win. These teams didn't play in the regular season last year so the last two meetings have both been SBC tournament quarterfinal games. Texas State holds a slim 8-7 lead overall in the series and are 5-2 in San Marcos.
Betting Odds
Texas State is a 4-point favorite at home. Sounds about right but if that gets up to 5 or 6 I'm gonna put something on App to cover the way we've been playing lately.
App State Message Board
MBB @ Texas State, Thursday 2/3 8pm -
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