NCAA Tournament - Omaha, NE
- Thread starter LTK5H
- Start date
If I am tracking this correctly, it would mean the following possibilities:
1) We won't have to worry about pod seeding and will get a more straightforward 1-48 bracket. Caveat: the seeding data is going to be all kinds of jacked up w/ the P12 and B1G not playing in the fall, and weird W/L records for them because they won't have OOS wins to prop up the totals.
2) If we can get seeded 17-32, we would avoid playing a Top 8 seed in the 1st match, and could get lucky w/ the 2nd round. Personally, I think we're in that range, but really need to go 10-4 in the spring to cement it.
1) We won't have to worry about pod seeding and will get a more straightforward 1-48 bracket. Caveat: the seeding data is going to be all kinds of jacked up w/ the P12 and B1G not playing in the fall, and weird W/L records for them because they won't have OOS wins to prop up the totals.
2) If we can get seeded 17-32, we would avoid playing a Top 8 seed in the 1st match, and could get lucky w/ the 2nd round. Personally, I think we're in that range, but really need to go 10-4 in the spring to cement it.
franslasttwinkie
Active member
It's going to be tall order coming up 9-3 in the next 12 but still doable if UNT was just a testament of offseason blues. Besides UNT struggled with UTEP so we have that in common. The road to finishing the remaining games in great standing could potentially mean having to split both the Baylor/Texas series
. I'd love to see us make a 3rd round of the tournament and I really hate to say it but if there is a year I really feel like it's this season or it could be a long time before we have a real "next shot".
19-1 vs SBC 1-2 vs CUSA yeessh
. I'd love to see us make a 3rd round of the tournament and I really hate to say it but if there is a year I really feel like it's this season or it could be a long time before we have a real "next shot".19-1 vs SBC 1-2 vs CUSA yeessh
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I think it's a little more than that, and the matches vs TCU, Tech, KSU, KU should show whether I'm on point w/ my concerns. Overall, we're simply not very tall, and that gives teams that may not be as technically sound as us, a weakness to exploit. I haven't dug into those rosters just, but I'm willing to bet they are taller across the front line, which will present issues for us. Huiet is going to have to X/O some way around that challenge if we're going to finish this season strong.
Checking w/ a friend of mine who is much more plugged in to NCAA Tourney, and he sent me this link, from a guy who typically gets pretty close to the target on bracketology. He is assuming seeding 1-48, w/ byes for the Top 16. He has us at #29, which looks good for 1st round, but real tough in the 2nd.
Bracketology 3/22
Bracketology 3/22
If the girls perform like they did at UH, I can see a strong finish to the Spring schedule.
That includes 3 more wins and taking a set or two from Baylor.
Although hard to argue with #29 seed since we have not broken into Top 25 yet this Spring.
We do not want to face UT or Baylor for a third time, if for no other reason to see new blood and have a fresh mental outlook on a new opponent.
That includes 3 more wins and taking a set or two from Baylor.
Although hard to argue with #29 seed since we have not broken into Top 25 yet this Spring.
We do not want to face UT or Baylor for a third time, if for no other reason to see new blood and have a fresh mental outlook on a new opponent.
franslasttwinkie
Active member
Here’s my question if we had gotten to your magic 10-4 record for spring ball would that have been good enough for a 17-20 seed? My guess is no unless it meant stealing a match from Baylor and even then maybe still not enough could have taken at least 11-3. If we can get a mid to high 30s seed like we might then I think we have a decent chance to win 2 games for what I assume would be first time in school history. Another loss to UNT would probably cement a lower seed than we deserved to have received based on fall play
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Agree - even w/ a win vs Baylor and a 11-3 record, we wouldn't have hit 20.
I think 41 is the magic number for best shot at 2 wins, but at this point it looks like we'd have to tank to get there. No, we've never won 2 matches in a tournament before - it's not something many G5 programs do. I could be off here, but I want to say I looked at the last 5 tournaments and outside of BYU* only 8 P5 teams had made the Sweet 16, and 2 of those were repeats (Hawaii & Marquette, iirc). So only 6 G5 programs have made a S16 in the last 5yrs. *they are quasi-P5 in VB just like FB, but better in VB.
Here's what the seeding/ 1st 2 rounds would look like:
I think 41 is the magic number for best shot at 2 wins, but at this point it looks like we'd have to tank to get there. No, we've never won 2 matches in a tournament before - it's not something many G5 programs do. I could be off here, but I want to say I looked at the last 5 tournaments and outside of BYU* only 8 P5 teams had made the Sweet 16, and 2 of those were repeats (Hawaii & Marquette, iirc). So only 6 G5 programs have made a S16 in the last 5yrs. *they are quasi-P5 in VB just like FB, but better in VB.
Here's what the seeding/ 1st 2 rounds would look like:
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@Fiefdom here's a better RPI table, adjusted to remove the idiocy. TXST @ a much more reasonable 35.
ncaastats.figstats.net
NCAA Division I Volleyball RPI Rankings
ncaastats.figstats.net
franslasttwinkie
Active member
The adjusted RPI table has Rice at #19 but the guy who put together the bracketology above has them as a last 4 out? Tough blow for Rice if true... I guess that is where the field cut by 25% lands with small conference autobids. If you aren't in a major conference or have a household name I suppose you need to have a sub 15 RPI to have a guarantee to grab an at large.
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franslasttwinkie
Active member
Does the field of 64 help our chances of getting past a 2nd round game or not vs 48? I guess it gives us an easier 1st game but a harder 2nd game? Or is there really not much effect for a team like us in the middle of the bunch?
My guess is this is accurate, but there's also the question of how they seed. If it's a true 1-64, then there's no difference at all: the 49-64 seeds would just drop into the bye that 1-16 have in the 48. So yeah, at 29, we'd still be slotted to play the 4 in Rd2.
Remember that the normal way is not a strict 1-64, but 1-16 and then fill in regional pods to save on travel, which is why we always go to Austin. Hard to believe they would switch it up and add 16 more at this point in time, but if they can do it for M & W hoops, there's no real reason they shouldn't be able to do it for VB.
For reference, the 1st 2 rds of 1-64 bracket would look like this:
franslasttwinkie
Active member
I thought somebody had posted something about a field of 64 being firmed up in April? But this guy posted another 48 team field in his projected bracket? I'd prefer to play a lower end P5 in the opening round so at least we can hang out head on something if we get stuck in a top national regional. Would not be excited about playing an nmsu kind of team other than it safely getting us to 2nd round.
franslasttwinkie
Active member
Give me Georgia Tech, FSU or PSU in the first round