Reset of Preseason Expectations

franslasttwinkie

Active member
What should be our expectations going forward? We’ve kind of seen up to this point what we are going to see.

Like @_x_ mentioned our cupboards look a lot more bare what was originally thought and it is clear this won’t look anything like like last season’s results and hopefully not like 2021. My guess is that it resembles something in between what 2010/2012 looked like and 2019.

The good news after the midweek and weekend performances around the SBC thus far everyone looks pretty beatable just like ourselves. Louisiana and Troy might be the front runners although CCU and USA are probably decent too.
 

franslasttwinkie

Active member
You’d have thought we were in Omaha after seeing that dog pile walk off over 1-13 NDSU. I’m beginning to be worried if Trout hadn’t lost this team prior to this series whether allowing 25 runs in 2 games to Bison has done it yet.
 

LTK5H

M&G Gift Contributor
M&G Collective Member
I don't understand how twinkie, 87, jello, et al, live life like this. Going Chicken Little after every single run/basket/point scored against the Bobcats, never mind the apocalypse of a regular season loss. Even after all of our overall athletic success, I feel I have a fairly negative view of our teams as a whole, but compared to them, I feel like a sunshine pumper on molly.
 

_x_

M&G Gift Contributor
Yeah 87s negativity can be a tad much sometimes but usually its cloaked in some form of sarcasm or an attempt at humor with varied results, but at least his takes are rooted in some form of reality.

I agree that I don't know how twink and jello live life like that. I mean I'm all for high expectations but its like they expect 12-0, 32-0, and 56-0 every year. Not to mention my favorite routine of theirs: pretty much only posting after losses and wins that aren't good enough in their eyes. I haven't even read the thread covering the HCU game last night but I can rest assured that the narrative will be that only winning by 6 was a disaster.

My only advice is try and enjoy the wins, particularly good wins. Try and be happy occasionally. You'll probably feel better.

This baseball team is 15-6 by the way.
 

franslasttwinkie

Active member
Doesn't seem too farfetched to hope a team that finishes with 47 wins and 26 conference wins can follow that up with a season and get say 40 wins and 22 conference wins with what isn't supposed that huge of a dropoff between the players that exited and those that were expected to step up in place.

I mean how crazy would it be to string together 2 post seasons in a row? Can we say with a straight face we are on track for that...really hard to say. Just because we have a 47-win season doesn't mean we shouldn't expect another 40-win season to happen for another decade. Been there rode all that out from 2012 all the way until 2019, not trying to ever do that again.
 

_x_

M&G Gift Contributor
How did we not have a huge drop-off between players that exited and those expected to step up?

Dalton Shuffield, SBC Player of the Year at the most important defensive position, currently in the Twins organization and even played some games at AAA last year in his shortened rookie season: gone, replaced by a JUCO tandem who simply can't be expected to replace Shuffield's senior year productivity (cause who can?)
Justin Thompson, senior who hit .323: gone, replaced by two guys who were on the roster last year and rarely played who combined are hitting about .230 right now
John Wuthrich, senior who hit .267 but hit 14 homers: gone, we still haven't figured out his replacement in RF yet
Wes Faison, senior who did struggle a bit last year but had a good career overall: gone, mostly adequately replaced by Ramirez at DH
IOJ: senior who hit .287: gone, replaced by a .222 hitter right now
Tristan Stivors: a CONCENSUS all-american which is unheard of at TXST who is pitching big league spring training games as we speak with success: gone, we really don't have a closer this year, we just try to close games on the fly with what's available

I'd agree that other than replacing arguably the best pitcher in TXST history there wasn't much drop-off pitching-wise but anytime you have to replace 5/9 of your lineup with returners who never played, freshman, and JUCO guys there should be some expected regression. I'm actually a bit pleasantly surprised your expectations aren't to actually be better this year than last as you always seem to compare success YOY and expect it to continuously improve. That's not really realistic with what we lost and with the success we had last year. Winning 40 games is a fine goal. This team should expect to compete for another regional berth. I don't disagree with those levels of expectations at all, though winning 40 games will always be an extremely lofty goal. Just keep in mind this is baseball. We're going to lose games we shouldn't to bad teams, that happens in this sport (last year we lost games to Utah Valley and Incarnate Word). When those losses inevitably happen the sky isn't always falling and its not indicative of some nefarious thing like "Trout losing the team" like you said towards the beginning of this thread. We still got our RPI up to 20 last year with those 2 losses to sub-180 RPI teams. SBC is 5th in conference RPI right now, we're basically in a power conference in baseball. Our conference SOS will keep our RPI afloat if we're winning games.
 

franslasttwinkie

Active member
Lofty? USA, GSU and ULM to an extent have all arguably regressed in some fashion since last season and they are all on the schedule. Getting Marshall in exchange for this year's App is probably beneficial to conference record too. Last year's GS for this year's ODU might end up being a wash. Little Rock for Troy okay we might not have lucked out there with that matchup last year.

Like I've mentioned I played around Goldschmidt prior to TXST for some years so I probably have a different mindset than most but this program has a good chance to build somewhat of a dynasty with baseball as opposed to other major sports in our relative version of what ECU has been able to do.
 

Bobcat1

Active member
How did we not have a huge drop-off between players that exited and those expected to step up?

Dalton Shuffield, SBC Player of the Year at the most important defensive position, currently in the Twins organization and even played some games at AAA last year in his shortened rookie season: gone, replaced by a JUCO tandem who simply can't be expected to replace Shuffield's senior year productivity (cause who can?)
Justin Thompson, senior who hit .323: gone, replaced by two guys who were on the roster last year and rarely played who combined are hitting about .230 right now
John Wuthrich, senior who hit .267 but hit 14 homers: gone, we still haven't figured out his replacement in RF yet
Wes Faison, senior who did struggle a bit last year but had a good career overall: gone, mostly adequately replaced by Ramirez at DH
IOJ: senior who hit .287: gone, replaced by a .222 hitter right now
Tristan Stivors: a CONCENSUS all-american which is unheard of at TXST who is pitching big league spring training games as we speak with success: gone, we really don't have a closer this year, we just try to close games on the fly with what's available

I'd agree that other than replacing arguably the best pitcher in TXST history there wasn't much drop-off pitching-wise but anytime you have to replace 5/9 of your lineup with returners who never played, freshman, and JUCO guys there should be some expected regression. I'm actually a bit pleasantly surprised your expectations aren't to actually be better this year than last as you always seem to compare success YOY and expect it to continuously improve. That's not really realistic with what we lost and with the success we had last year. Winning 40 games is a fine goal. This team should expect to compete for another regional berth. I don't disagree with those levels of expectations at all, though winning 40 games will always be an extremely lofty goal. Just keep in mind this is baseball. We're going to lose games we shouldn't to bad teams, that happens in this sport (last year we lost games to Utah Valley and Incarnate Word). When those losses inevitably happen the sky isn't always falling and its not indicative of some nefarious thing like "Trout losing the team" like you said towards the beginning of this thread. We still got our RPI up to 20 last year with those 2 losses to sub-180 RPI teams. SBC is 5th in conference RPI right now, we're basically in a power conference in baseball. Our conference SOS will keep our RPI afloat if we're winning games.
We lost a lot of super senior type of productivity now that COVID numbers are normalizing. I’ve been pleasantly surprised tbh with the productivity, particularly from the underclass men.
 

_x_

M&G Gift Contributor
We've won 40 games 3 times in our history. This is our 40th season. So yeah I'd say expecting to do something we've managed 7.5% of the time in our history is a lofty goal. I also said its a fine goal for this team after last year's success. Winning 2/3+ of your games is hard to do in this sport.
 

carmanjello325

Active member
and you guys thought losing 23 last season was a steven whiff. lost 10 more games in 2023 than 2022 and trending towards losing 10 more in 2024 than 2023. by 2025 the team could be below where 2021 was. when is someone going to say uncle?
 

Bobcat87

Active member
We've won 40 games 3 times in our history. This is our 40th season. So yeah I'd say expecting to do something we've managed 7.5% of the time in our history is a lofty goal. I also said its a fine goal for this team after last year's success. Winning 2/3+ of your games is hard to do in this sport.
Meeting a standard of excellence only 7.5% of the time in our history .. ..

sounds very Bobcat.
 

franslasttwinkie

Active member
Meeting a standard of excellence only 7.5% of the time in our history .. ..

sounds very Bobcat.
Sounds like the wrong “standard” was set over the course of history and for what we are now paying this staff normalizing a bad 25 win season is a kick to the nuts. 35 wins + a post season run is the expectation at smaller schools CCU, USM and ULL.

Hopefully the 2 humiliating seasons and a hair above average season gets under KD’s skin.
 

franslasttwinkie

Active member
Receipts, sweet receipts. Our program used to be filled with so much hope. #GoldyenDays. Cinco De Mayo 2009

6661
 
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