After back-to-back home games, Texas State is hitting the road again with a visit to Hattiesburg to take on Southern Miss.
The Bobcats improved to 3-1 after completing the largest comeback of its FBS era last week against Nevada, rallying from down 17 to win 35-24. A huge win for Texas State, and not just because it solidified their best start to a season since 2013 – The team displayed the competitiveness and resilience necessary to take on a very strong Sun Belt schedule.
This will be the fourth all-time matchup against the Golden Eagles, who lead the series 2-1 after stealing a game in San Marcos last season 20-14. The road team has been victorious in all three previous matchups between the programs. The Bobcats are favored to win in Hattiesburg this Saturday.
It has been a disappointing start to the season for Southern Miss, who’s record stands at 1-3 after three straight losses. Last week, they suffered a 44-37 defeat to Sun Belt foe Arkansas State, reaching the lowest point of the Will Hall era thus far.
A Look at Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles offense is lead by quarterback Billy Wiles, a Clemson transfer and former walk-on. Even the best teams of USM’s recent years have been plagued by poor quarterback play, so the question is: is this year any different? The answer, in short, is no. Wiles has not gotten off to a stellar start this season, completing just 54.2% of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Wiles is mostly a pocket passer, with enough athleticism to provide some escapability. He has an average arm that is not strong enough to justify some of the decisions he makes with the ball. If they want to beat Texas State, he will have to look better than he has so far.
The calling card of late for Southern Miss has been the run game, this year is no different. Frank Gore Jr. and Rodrigues Clark combine to make a stellar running back duo. Unfortunately for Southern Miss, it has been hard for their talented backs to really be as efficient as they would like because the offensive line has been struggling to get a push consistently.
Southern Miss also has a talented receiver room. They have talented players throughout their receiving corps, and they can make plays happen even if Wiles is not throwing the ball well. Jakarius Caston and Latreal Jones in particular, are very good players for the Golden Eagles.
The Golden Eagles are a decent team defensively, and they’re better built in the trenches on that side of the ball. They’re built pretty stout and do a decent job stopping opponent rushing attacks. After not being able to run the ball very effectively or consistently against Baylor and UTSA, the Bobcats saw success against Jackson State and Nevada. Southern Miss will be the best test for this offensive line since they took on the Roadrunners in San Antonio.
In the front seven, USM has a handful of players to look out for. Josh Ratcliff, one of their big defensive tackles has been extremely effective on the line. Additionally, Jalil Clemons their linebacker has also been off to a hot start, both Ratcliff and Clemons have two sacks on the year.
Statistically speaking, they’ve been slightly less effective against the pass than the run. Their safeties Dylan Lawrence and Jay Stanley are big players on the backend of their defense. The two of them lead the team in tackles. Stanley has forced the only fumble for the defense this season and has two of the team’s three interceptions.
The Case for Texas State
Southern Miss is the best team the Bobcats have played since UTSA. Obviously, the Bobcats struggled last week against Nevada. They did not play anywhere near what they are capable of, even if they came back to win. Southern Miss is certainly better than Nevada, so if Texas State plays as sloppy as they did last week, I am not confident they could have a path to come back and win.
Texas State has to limit self-inflected wounds, something that has been hampering the team all season, penalties especially. The defense plays an extremely aggressive style, but the lack of discipline is not something that they can afford in conference play.
If Texas State limits the unforced errors on defense, Southern Miss will have to play at a level that I’m not sure their offense is capable of. As I mentioned, the stats say the Golden Eagles are worse defending the pass than the run. If Finley plays at a high level, which he has for most of the season, the passing attack should be lethal on Saturday. Of course, games are won in the trenches. I would love to see Mahdi build on his incredible performance against Nevada, and I would love to see the offensive line continue to create huge holes for the running backs to run through.
Final Thoughts
I am extremely excited to get into conference play, Texas State certainly exceeded my expectations in the non-conference schedule. I expect the Bobcats to see a motivated USM team coming off a loss to Arkansas State, who has been viewed as one of the worst teams in the FBS. Texas State better be ready to play, now is when games start to really matter.
