2019 Expectations

[JustinS09]

Sorry, I totally hijacked the 2020 Recruiting thread... Starting this thread to discuss expectations of Spav and the team for next year. Schedule is below. I will be completely honest, I don't know exactly where the wins will come from, but I think we surprise a few teams next year. I don't think anyone expected us to lose to Georgia Southern by 2 or Troy by 6. In both of those games, if we had even a hint of offense, we win them.

I don't believe our defense takes too much of a step back from last year, if at all. I also think our offense will improve significantly. Even if it’s just a moderate improvement, I think it will be enough to steal a few games from teams we are not favored to beat. We had 4 games last year that we lost by less than a touchdown in and that’s not including the USA game we lost in the last few minutes of the game…

Instead of listing which teams I think we will beat and lose to, I’m going to list which games I see as winnable vs guaranteed losses. A few of these I would normal consider automatic losses, like Arkansas State, ULL, and Troy, but we almost beat Troy last year, and played Arkansas State and ULL respectable last year with what I consider a worse offense than we will have this year and a fired coach in the middle of the week for Arkansas State.

@ A&M - loss
Wyoming - winnable
@ SMU - winnable
Georgia State - winnable
Nichols State - winnable
ULM - winnable
@ Arkansas State - winnable
@ ULL - winnable
South Alabama - winnable
Troy - winnable
@ App State - loss
@ Coastal - winnable

 

[Bobcat2013]

@ A&M - loss
Wyoming - winnable
@ SMU - loss
Georgia State - winnable
Nichols State - winnable
ULM - winnable
@ Arkansas State - winnable
@ ULL - winnable
South Alabama - winnable
Troy - winnable
@ App State - winnable
@ Coastal - winnable

I agree with all except I think we lose to SMU and I think APP is winnable with a new coach and no more Trace McSorely Jr. Now how many of those do we actually win? I'd say GSU, Coastal, USA, ULM, and Nicholls. Too bad this is the year we face the strongest FCS team we've scheduled.

 

[Bobcat87]

Thar be a lot of “new” around this team. And new means a lot of unknown. I think 5 wins is realistic. If Spav can get total buy in, get these guys to all pull in the same direction, then I think we could chalk up 6. Anything more would be a very pleasant surprise.

 

[slycat]

@ A&M - loss
Wyoming - loss
@ SMU - loss
Georgia State - win
Nichols State - win
ULM - win
@ Arkansas State - loss
@ ULL - loss
South Alabama - win
Troy - loss
@ App State - loss
@ Coastal - win

That gives 5. I could see 6 if you get one out of Wyoming, SMU, and UL. but I could see loses against ULM, USA, and Nichols (ugh)

 

[_x_]

I tend to go into a new head coach's first year with a clean slate and literally no level of expectation yet. I haven't seen Spav in a HC role before so I don't have the tools to make a reliable expectation. I'm going to do my best to try and enjoy year 1 and hopefully the team and staff make that easy to do. Year 2 is when I'll start my list of demands...

 

[JustinS09]

I admit that I'm usually on the optimistic side of things, but I don't see us regressing from last year and we had 5 very winnable games slip through our fingers last year.

The defense shouldn't regress much if at all and I have to believe that a Stitt/Spavital led offense will produce more than a Withers led offense. Regardless of new schemes, formations, and plays. Our offense was about as bad as it gets last year and was the sole reason we lost those 5 close games in my opinion.

 

[Bobcat87]

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said. Whatever our overall record ends up being, he really only has 11 games to achieve it. So a 5-6 or 6-5 in his first year would be pretty good by me. IF he could achieve a mark over 6, that’d probably be on the order of a miracle, so call the Pope.

When TX brought in their current guy, a lot of folks thought they were going to roll from the git go, didn’t quite work out that way. NEW can be hard.

Right now, everyone on this team has a learning curve, remains to be seen how steep it is.

 

[JustinS09]

The only think I take back is the comment about anything less than 6 would be a failure. I was probably being a little overzealous with that one lol. I would still be very disappointed with that outcome though. Maybe I'm just buying into the Spavital savior complex a little too much.

 

[2centsworth]

@ A&M - murdered
Wyoming - improved but lose by 20
@ SMU - wow...we could have won that game
Georgia State - 4th qtr lead. hope we don't choke
Nichols State - win
ULM - rush the field
@ Arkansas State - lose by a FG
@ ULL - huge win!!
South Alabama - win
Troy - sold out stadium. OMG...why are we turning the ball over so much.
@ App State - loss
@ Coastal - win

4 to 6 wins and end with some optimism.

 

[TheRevSWT]

I want to see us better at the end of the year than when we started. That's my expectation for year 1.

Year 2 is win total focus. Hate to admit it, but short of him absolutely "dumping" the bed, I'm not gonna get too excited or depressed year 1.

Well, that's a lie. I'll get depressed if the offense doesn't significantly improve. Can't bring in two really good offensive minds in the HC/OC and not expect to see major growth in that area.

 

[LABobcat]

Can't bring in two really good offensive minds in the HC/OC and not expect to see major growth in that area.

When Stitt went to OK St, I was hoping he'd pick up some of the "power spread" run concepts there so he could use those in short yardage and red zone situations. (kind of the opposite of what has me excited about Kellen Moore and the Cowboys: looks like Moore might use more 4-receiver sets in the red zone - but in both cases, being able to do both and not being predictable is the goal.) This could be a natural progression in the evolution of Stitt's O, but is he too old to learn new tricks?

The other question on the O is QB. Jensen was good at MT as a redshirt freshman, but not great. Has he developed in the past 2 years? He should be better, but he did at times have issues with accuracy in the short game, and they say it's hard to coach accuracy. It seemed like this offense with Jensen (and Gipson!) was starting to show up at the end of the spring game, but not against the starting D. Someone on the roster might push Jensen for the starting job in year 2.

Bottom line: I don't see how we win fewer than 5 games - I'm predicting 7 wins. A key game will be Wyoming. We need to win that to go 1-1 and rebuild confidence after a nasty loss at College Station. I wish they didn't schedule that A&M game. We'll lose respectably at SMU but then win the next 3 to start the year 4-2. Key games in the 2nd half are ULL and hopefully surprising Troy at home. Man, I could not be more excited!!

 

[carmanjello325]

I hate moral victories more than most anyone on this board but part of me sometimes would almost trade a well-contested 10-13 point loss to TAMU where we truly had them on the ropes the whole game than beating Wyoming by an extra point or even beating Nicholls by 4 plus scores. Now beating SMU is not something I would ever even think about giving up. I want to beat them by 20.

TAMU 24-38, L
Wyoming 27-17, W
SMU 31-41, L
Nicholls 24-21, W

Conference Play:

Georgia State- Can't afford to lose to inner-city commuter schools. If memory serves... 2 years they blew us out on paper involved Withers, several pick6/scoop n' score like blooper scenarios or special teams TD's and then the year they beat us by 3 points was 100% on Withers too. Now that the popcorn GIF joker is out.. this game is a no excuse win (running new systems or not with new personnel). Win
ULM - This is another came we cannot afford to lose to Northwest Louisiana U. The decider in this game is that their D is not good and our D is a fair amount above average. Win
@ Arkansas State - loss. Sadly this game my play out like the disappointment of the 2017 matchup with the 4 point deficit headed into the end of Q3. Loss
@ ULL - their D is not very good. Win
South Alabama - another cannot afford to lose game. Their D is awful. Win
Troy - Win. Last year's game looked like a soccer match.
@ App State - Loss
@ Coastal - Loss. The turf color is too much for us to finish strong

7-5, but not exactly how anyone envisioned

Ultimately the decider for the season is how we do against peer programs ulm, ga st, coastal, ULL and USA. If we win the games that are very winnable then it takes pressure off the games where we don't have the talent advantage and who knows maybe players will play relaxed and pull some crazy things off.

 

[slycat]

All these people thinking we can beat Troy when they are a top team in the conference and UL who, no matter how bad they are, we have never beat.

 

[JustinS09]

Troy lost to liberty last year and only beat us by 5... In a game that we only scored 7 points in.

Most people seem to agree that our defense will be relatively as good as they were last year. So, it's not a big leap to think we can beat Troy next year with an improved offense.

The ULL pick, well we should have beaten them already and it's bound to happen eventually. Why not this year?

 

[Voltronjacko]

Maybe this is my maroon-tinted glasses, but why are so many counting SMU as a loss? Those guys were 5-7 last year in Sonny Dykes's first year after Chad Morris left for Arky. Now, I can see us losing that game, but I can also see us taking that one. Are we just assuming they are going to be that much better in SD's 2nd year and getting UT transfer QB Shane Buechele?

 

[carmanjello325]

Maybe this is my maroon-tinted glasses, but why are so many counting SMU as a loss? Those guys were 5-7 last year in Sonny Dykes's first year after Chad Morris left for Arky. Now, I can see us losing that game, but I can also see us taking that one. Are we just assuming they are going to be that much better in SD's 2nd year and getting UT transfer QB Shane Buechele?

I don't think anyone is counting SMU or Wyoming as a loss I think everyone just thinks it is highly unlikely that we come out of non conf sporting a 3-1 OOO record. We lose either of the SMU/Wyoming games. With my maroon-tinted glasses I would like to think the odds of us winning both of those games is just about as good as losing both of them. With that being said I think most agree that we will take 1 of those 2 games there just seems to be a lot of disagreement of which one we actually take. Believe me I would love to leave OOO 3-1 but then again after the last 48 games I'm somewhat complacent in getting out of non conference 2-2 though with stAte App and ULL all away and particularly having to play stAte and ULL back to back on the road and then play App on the road the week after Troy I certainly think it is in Spav's best interest to do everything in his power to knockoff Wyoming and SMU early b/c the last 6 games of the season do not setup well for a bowl appearance.

If we were to go 3-1 in non conf then then all we would need to do is go 1-3 vs App/Troy/State/ULL and 3-1 vs ga st/ulm/coastal/USA to get to 7-5. Probably not the way most picture getting to 7-5 but I would love for that to happen even if it means not having success against sunbelt top 3.

 

[2centsworth]

The guy at SWC Roundup is predicting 6 to 7 wins and has me convinced.

https://swcroundup.com/news/2019/6/9/texas-state-2019-season-preview

 

[Bobcat87]

The guy at SWC Roundup is predicting 6 to 7 wins and has me convinced.

https://swcroundup.com/news/2019/6/9/texas-state-2019-season-preview

Nice article . . . maybe it's the lateness of the hour, or the fact that I'm getting "free baseball" from Houston, but hold my beer . . . and pass the Kool Aid.

 

[_x_]

Glad to see SWCroundup back. Didn't they shut down earlier in the year?

That article has been great so far and they're adding to it daily.

I like the late 90s OU comparison in there today. GET MY HOPES UP BABY!!!!

 

[DevilDog7396$]

Yesterday I told my bride of 46 years , before I lose my mind I'm getting in the car and driving into town(San Marcos) to purchase a college football magazine. I hate this time of the year. I went to the large HEB since my wife wanted me to pickup some other items. Well, guess what, HEB did away with their section in the store where you find magazines/paperback books to purchase. By the checkout lanes they do have a very small selection of magazines such as Texas Monthly , Southern Living, etc. I thought to myself, what the heck is happening to our world. This is the state of Texas where football is King ! Next door to HEB is a Walgreens , same story. I drove to Half Priced books store , thinking that of all places I would find my treasured college football magazine. Nope. They no longer carry new, current magazines. Now I'm starting to panic. I finally drove to the CVS store and yes they still sell magazines but all I could find was a pro football magazine that out of desperation I decided to purchase. When returning to my neighborhood, I stopped at our mailbox and to my great surprise , in the mail was my Dave Campbell's Texas Football magazine !!! With great joy I returned home with my sanity regained. After quickly reviewing the magazine here are some tidbits about our Cats. DCTF predicts we will finish the season at 5-7 with a third place in the West division behind Ark St and ULL. They predict the five wins will be against Georgia St , Nicholls St , ULM , South Alabama and Coastal. Offensively , DCTF gives grades to the different position groups, ie quarterbacks D+, running backs a C , offensive line a C- and the receiving group a C. Defensively, the position group grades were as follows ; defensive line B+ , linebackers A+ , defensive backs a B and special teams a grade of C . Biggest concern is the kicking game. I was thrilled to see that Bryan London was one of three linebackers selected first team defense for the ALL-TEXAS COLLEGE TEAM DEFENSE . Better than that , he was also selected as the top linebackers for this group. On the recruiting class reporting in this summer , the magazine feels that Ronald Copney , OG and Jordan Revels , DE will be the "sleepers" of the group. The " Three Gems " of the recruiting class they feel will be Dylan Jantz , ATH , Kevin Anderson , S , and Calvin Hill , RB . Can not wait for the season to get here. Come by my motorhome in the tailgate section with the Marine Corps flag flying on top of the Bobcat flag. Go Cats.