2019 Expectations

[LABobcat]

Offensively , DCTF gives grades to the different position groups, ie quarterbacks D+,

This pass-based "west coast spread" offense is filtered through the QB. If our QB's are D+ quality we'll be lucky to win 2 games. The QB makes reads every play, pre-snap and post-snap, that determine the success of the play. The QB must process the D quickly, identify the open guy, and get the ball out with relative accuracy to short, mid, or long areas of the field. In other words, this offense goes as the QB goes. There's definitely a run game, even a flourishing run game, but it's the 40 passes / game that will set up the run and hopefully loosen up the line of scrimmage.

I think we hit 6-7 wins because Gresch Jensen is a solid B at QB. That's based on what I saw him do as a redshirt freshman in the Big Sky conf. two years ago. Now if the Sun Belt is at a much higher level than the Big Sky (e.g., windows in the secondary close much faster due to faster and better DB's), then we may be in trouble. But I'm thinking the Sun Belt is not that much better - that like the Big Sky, the Sun Belt has mostly 2 and 3-star guys in the secondary.

 

[Josh]

I think Withers would have won 6 games with this team. That's about what my expectations are.

 

[Bobkat34]

Not sure any of you saw this from Dave Campbell live show about them talking new HCs in Texas. Its a small piece on Jake Spavital but I think its about as good a point of view as anyone can have (nothing really new but helps me put things in perspective a bit).

Link: DCTF Live Show
At 7:15 minute mark.

Discussed overall view from Withers time (on field and off field too) and moving to Jake and Bob Stitt.

 

[Bobkat34]

This pass-based "west coast spread" offense is filtered through the QB. If our QB's are D+ quality we'll be lucky to win 2 games. The QB makes reads every play, pre-snap and post-snap, that determine the success of the play. The QB must process the D quickly, identify the open guy, and get the ball out with relative accuracy to short, mid, or long areas of the field. In other words, this offense goes as the QB goes. There's definitely a run game, even a flourishing run game, but it's the 40 passes / game that will set up the run and hopefully loosen up the line of scrimmage.

I think we hit 6-7 wins because Gresch Jensen is a solid B at QB. That's based on what I saw him do as a redshirt freshman in the Big Sky conf. two years ago. Now if the Sun Belt is at a much higher level than the Big Sky (e.g., windows in the secondary close much faster due to faster and better DB's), then we may be in trouble. But I'm thinking the Sun Belt is not that much better - that like the Big Sky, the Sun Belt has mostly 2 and 3-star guys in the secondary.

LA... I agree but we cannot be a 10-15 yard spread offense and must "SPREAD" the defense in order to run within a system like this. Fran was a 10-15 yard 3 WR offense and was able to run with SOME success Withers tried to spread defenses to keep them honest but didn't have a QB that could do that and maybe not the WRs. We'll see.

Run game under spread are screens to RBs, WRs, WRs catching ball out wide and another WR blocking for them (ball was thrown laterally and any yards gained at that point are rushing yards).

 

[Bobkat34]

By the way, I'm calling it now... UTSA will hire Eric Morris next year after UTSA goes below .500 this season. Just saying.

 

[Bobcat2013]

LA... I agree but we cannot be a 10-15 yard spread offense and must "SPREAD" the defense in order to run within a system like this. Fran was a 10-15 yard 3 WR offense and was able to run with SOME success Withers tried to spread defenses to keep them honest but didn't have a QB that could do that and maybe not the WRs. We'll see.

Run game under spread are screens to RBs, WRs, WRs catching ball out wide and another WR blocking for them (ball was thrown laterally and any yards gained at that point are rushing yards).

Man that last sentence is bugging me and I might get a little pedantic. Like I get what you're saying, WR screens are a new form of "run game", but WR screen passes should not go laterally. First of all that would put the WR at least 5 yards behind the LOS when he catches the ball. Second, if he drops the ball it's now a fumble. I know these lateral screen plays happen but I doubt theyre intentional when they do.

 

[JustinS09]

In my opinion, screens should be used very sparingly and based on the situation (down and distance, momentum in the game, etc.) AND they should never be thrown backwards.

Unfortunately, the past two coaching staffs built our passing game on a screen pass foundation. I'm not going to get into the reasons why, cause that's a different topic (poor QB play, poor OLine play, poor WR play, etc.), but whatever the reason, it leads to unsuccessful or inconsistent offenses. Which is evident by our offensive success since moving up to FBS.

 

[_x_]

The screen game can be really effective when you have the athletes to run it properly. If the guy catching the ball can make a defender miss, and the guys blocking for him are good blockers it's almost impossible to slow down. Then you start mixing in the deep ball and the secondary doesn't even know where to begin. Pretty much what Art Briles did at Baylor. Unfortunately we haven't had the athletes to run that style of offense. Hopefully, if we still don't, it won't take long for Spav and Stitt to realize that and not try to force it. We need this staff to do a better job of adapting to the personnel they have than the previous two did.

 

[JustinS09]

We need this staff to do a better job of adapting to the personnel they have than the previous two did.

This.

 

[Bobkat34]

Man that last sentence is bugging me and I might get a little pedantic. Like I get what you're saying, WR screens are a new form of "run game", but WR screen passes should not go laterally. First of all that would put the WR at least 5 yards behind the LOS when he catches the ball. Second, if he drops the ball it's now a fumble. I know these lateral screen plays happen but I doubt theyre intentional when they do.

I didn't place the example in with screens. There are times in West Coast (spread offenses too) that they will put 3 WRs together with 1-2 on line and the other not... they'll throw it laterally or just 2 WR and the ball is either thrown forward (barely) or laterally to get 3-4 yards and if it is laterally... its rushing yards not passing yards. That is what I meant. Screen game should be forward passes, no doubt.

 

[LABobcat]

The screen game can be really effective when you have the athletes to run it properly. If the guy catching the ball can make a defender miss, and the guys blocking for him are good blockers it's almost impossible to slow down.

Making the first guy miss, or dragging him for a few yards, is the key. If that happens a time or two, you'll have the entire D running out to the sideline to help on the screens. They should start to feel that, especially when you snap the ball within a few seconds. But do we have someone who can make moves in a congested area? Twyford comes to mind for me. Not sure about Sheread. But you could also have a really strong WR who's difficult to pull down and can power forward for extra yards most of the time.

I believe these passes by design are forward passes so if they're dropped, it's an incompletion. If the D is all over it, it will be shut down for a gain of 1-3 yds.

 

[LABobcat]

Not sure any of you saw this from Dave Campbell live show about them talking new HCs in Texas. Its a small piece on Jake Spavital but I think its about as good a point of view as anyone can have (nothing really new but helps me put things in perspective a bit).

Link: DCTF Live Show
At 7:15 minute mark.

Discussed overall view from Withers time (on field and off field too) and moving to Jake and Bob Stitt.

They emphasize establishing an offensive identity, and how Withers never had one. You can check that off - we have 2 very established Air Raid coaches. Offensive identity: done! Now it's just getting the players to make it go even better, and adapting it (e.g., how much do they want to incorporate power spread concepts like putting the H-back as in inline blocker or in the backfield as a fullback). Even then, I'd expect we see 35 passes almost every game. There is no question of our offensive identity now.

 

[Bobkat34]

True on offensive identity but as noted by LA... gotta find guys that can execute and depth as well. We are all confident in our defense to be no worse that last year but the O would have to make leaps and bounds to be more effective. One can argue had we scored just a field goal, we could have beat UTSA and S. Alabama but we couldn't.

I think the guy on the show was right... for other teams like UH/TT its about putting in their identity but for us its about Ws because we have so many returners with 1-2 seasons of experience and we need to win 4-5 at minimum to see some progress. They talked about the Wyoming game or Troy game as possible #6 Ws with Brown/veterans gone at Troy. We'll see.

 

[JustinS09]

I think we have 5 games that are must wins. Georgia State at home, Nicholls State at home, ULM at home, USA at home, and Coastal Carolina away. From there, we are looking at an average or great season depending on how the winnable games against Wyoming at home, SMU away, and ULL away. Each of those games should be a toss up. If we are able to pull upsets in any of the remaining games, we will have a historical and miraculous season.

Green games are must win, Blue are toss ups, and the rest would be big upsets.

Thu, Aug 29	@ Texas A&M
Sat, Sep 7	vs Wyoming
Sat, Sep 14	@ SMU
Sat, Sep 21	vs Georgia State
Sat, Sep 28	vs Nicholls
Thu, Oct 10	vs UL Monroe
Sat, Oct 26	@ Arkansas State
Sat, Nov 2	@ Louisiana
Sat, Nov 9	vs South Alabama
Sat, Nov 16	vs Troy
Sat, Nov 23	@ Appalachian State
Sat, Nov 30	@ Coastal Carolina

 

[TheRevSWT]

You really see Wyoming, SMU, and the Cajuns as toss up type games?

I see them as super tough games for us, but winnable. We just have to be on our A game.

That's the one good thing about this conference to me. an 11-1 season is not impossible. SUPER difficult and not at all likely, but not impossible. Even the A&M game is winnable, but holy crap... We'd need a perfect game, and for A&M to not only be WAY off their game, but also someone will most likely need to bribe the SEC refs.

 

[Mpf43]

I think withers was going to win 6 this year with that team. Many may not agree but just throwing that out there. Really wasn’t that far from it last year and lost nobody.

 

[JustinS09]

I do see those 3 as could go either way. I would rank them as Wyoming, SMU, and ULL from most winnable to least winnable. All 3 are average G5's at best. We get Wyoming at home which makes them the most winnable, SMU will be tough for sure, and ULL is only last because we've never beaten them before. It's probably a mental issue more than anything.

 

[JustinS09]

I think withers was going to win 6 this year with that team. Many may not agree but just throwing that out there. Really wasn’t that far from it last year and lost nobody.

I would have thought this was the popular opinion. We were very close to winning 8 games last year. 6 wins with the same team and 1 more year of experience should be a no brainer. Add in the better coaches and improved offense and we really should be expecting a drastic improvement over last season.

 

[TheRevSWT]

I do see those 3 as could go either way. I would rank them as Wyoming, SMU, and ULL from most winnable to least winnable. All 3 are average G5's at best. We get Wyoming at home which makes them the most winnable, SMU will be tough for sure, and ULL is only last because we've never beaten them before. It's probably a mental issue more than anything.

I swear, at this point, I'd consider selling my soul to beat them finally.

 

[2centsworth]

I would have thought this was the popular opinion. We were very close to winning 8 games last year. 6 wins with the same team and 1 more year of experience should be a no brainer. Add in the better coaches and improved offense and we really should be expecting a drastic improvement over last season.

Texas State lost their best offensive player in Keenen Brown who accounted for about 30% of the passing game. I don't see the easy 6 wins, especially if Withers was here. The defense is decent, but no where good enough to win 3 games by themselves. If Texas State were to win 6 or more games, Spavital should be considered coach of the year. Withers should be commended for putting some talent on the field, but yet again this is Texas.