Well, here's to hoping Spavital is coach of the year
2019 Expectations
- Thread starter JustinS09
- Start date
TheRevSWT
Active member
I don't know about that. We do have a lot of now experienced talent returning, but we also have most likely a brand new QB, a WHOLE new offensive (and defensive) system, and like 2 Cents noted, we lost about a third of our offense. One of our best RB's doesn't have solid wheels either from his knee surgery.
It also assumes that we improve, but everyone else stays the same. We can't rely on that. We have to believe that Spav's system is so much better than Withers (or that the players buy into it more, execute more, etc) that our improvement exceeds that of our conference mates.
Where I do disagree with 2Cents is that the benchmark for wins should be 5-6 wins. Anything less than that is a disappointing first season.
I am curious what his honest expectations are this year. I know we'll NEVER know that answer and we shouldn't. His expectation should be to win every game, and make sure that he puts our team in position to win. But deep down, he's seen most of the talent now. He has an idea of what to expect realistically. And I'd love to know that number.
I said this on the Sun Belt board but it blows my mind how low everyone is on ULM this year. This is a prime example of perception altering people's opinion I think. They were 6-6 overall last year and 4-4 in league play, Viator is proving to be a pretty decent coach, they return Caleb Evans at QB and he's proven to be a decent Sun Belt level QB. That game is definitely not in the "must win" category for me. I'd add it to the toss-up category but unlike the other games in the category it'd be the one toss-up where you lean towards a win more than a loss. Just an FYI, I wouldn't sleep on the Warhawks. I think they're gonna be far better than pretty much anyone is giving them credit for. Entire conference is looking past them for some reason and that makes them even more dangerous.
I also think Louisiana could be as good as they've been in years too. I'd maybe go as far to say Arkansas State may be more winnable than Louisiana. They won the west last year, Napier had a tremendous first year, and although these guys may not have a huge impact this year they smoked the league in recruiting in the 2019 cycle. Cajuns trending way up in my opinion.
Wyoming is a huge early game in my opinion. Very winnable game I think but we won't be favored.
I actually feel a little worse about SMU after looking them over a little more for the power rankings thread. That will be a tough game on the road, but I agree it is winnable.
I agree with the other 4 must wins:
We really can't afford to lose to an FCS team right now, GSU and USA absolutely have to be wins at home, and Coastal is a bit of a mess right now and they don't seem very happy with Chadwell as the HC replacement. Need to win those 4 and see if we can't sneak out 2 more somewhere between ULM, Wyoming, SMU.
I also think Louisiana could be as good as they've been in years too. I'd maybe go as far to say Arkansas State may be more winnable than Louisiana. They won the west last year, Napier had a tremendous first year, and although these guys may not have a huge impact this year they smoked the league in recruiting in the 2019 cycle. Cajuns trending way up in my opinion.
Wyoming is a huge early game in my opinion. Very winnable game I think but we won't be favored.
I actually feel a little worse about SMU after looking them over a little more for the power rankings thread. That will be a tough game on the road, but I agree it is winnable.
I agree with the other 4 must wins:
We really can't afford to lose to an FCS team right now, GSU and USA absolutely have to be wins at home, and Coastal is a bit of a mess right now and they don't seem very happy with Chadwell as the HC replacement. Need to win those 4 and see if we can't sneak out 2 more somewhere between ULM, Wyoming, SMU.
Man..we gotta do it before I'm ready to believe it. We haven't won more than 4 games since I don't know when and right now... on paper... it looks great but we don't win games on paper. I will go with the 4-5 wins and hope for more. Nothing right now says we are bowl ready. Hope I'm wrong.
Linds
M&G Gift Contributor
Ken Massey - Massey Ratings only has Texas State favored in 2 games and Nicholls St is neither of them.
Massey Ratings - TEXAS STATE 2019
Massey Ratings - TEXAS STATE 2019
SWTSC
Active member
Planned to be in Bimini opening weekend, but that was nixed due to a medical procedure scheduled for 8/30. Anyway, two of the casino sports bets I would have placed was Nicholls + points against Kansas St and a smaller straight up bet for Nichols to win.
Their coach is solid and turned that program around quickly. Been in the FCS playoffs the past 2 years. Are the defending SLC champs. Place 11 players on the preseason all conference team; more than any other team. 8 were 1st team; the others 2nd team. Three 1st team on offense (QB, WR, & OL) and two players (RB & OL) on 2nd team. Regarding 1st team defense, there were four (DL, LB (2) and CB) plus the Punter. Voted as 2nd team defense was a DB.
Their senior QB was the conference player of the year last season. Was voted the QB for the all Louisiana college team by sports writers who chose from every Louisiana program including LSU. The QB was all conference his freshman, sophomore and junior year. Has missed only one game due to injury.
This game is likely the toughest FCS team the Bobcats will have played since being FBS. I expect the coaches and SD’s in the Southland to vote Nicholls the favorite to win the conference later this summer, to be a preseason top 15in the FCS poll, and to have a deep run in the FCS playoffs.
Hmmm. Reading this has me revising my expected win total down from 7 to 6. Not that I don't think we can win, but I'm moving it from the probable to toss-up category. So I've got GA St., So Alab, and Coastal as probables, and toss-ups as Wyoming, Nicholls, ULM, ULL, and Troy. Maybe we upset SMU or Ark St. I'd be disappointed with fewer than 5 wins, but reading how solid Nicholls is, I'd be happy with 6 wins.
Well at the good news is that Georgia State beat a top 4 FCS team last year and GSU was terrible. If they can do it so can we.
I've been cautioning everyone about Nicholls for a while now, but don't forget that they're still FCS. They're going to be the best FCS team we've faced since moving up and it's not even close, but they're still FCS. As long as our players and coaches don't sleep on them it should still be a probable win. FCS over FBS upsets happen when teams go in thinking it's an automatic W. I'm hoping we don't do that.
When you’ve won 7 games in 3 years, you’ve got no business walking into any contest thinking it’s an automatic W.
carmanjello325
Active member
If there has been any season to taper expectations since the 2014 hangover this isn't the season to do it. The preseason strength of schedule ranks about in the middle since our journey to FBS began in 2012 so there's no excuses there and we lose a significant number of defenders for the 2020 season. Sad thing is it could be now or it could be never! Our first chance to win and hope recruits commit mid-season on the defensive side to help out next season, I imagine a good portion of our defenders in 2020 will be true freshman or a few RS sophomores from 2018 class.
Here is our strength of schedule resumes' based on average opponent ranking since 2012 and as you can see there isn't huge difference in SOS from year to year due to the conference we play in and our reluctance put more than 1 P5 on the schedule in any given year (this ranking does not count FCS strength b/c they aren't recognized)
***FPI measure (Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field)
1. (2012) FBS rank 80th...outcome 4-8... notable opponents #30 TTU #32 UtSt #49 LaTech
2. (2015) FBS rank 83rd...outcome 3-9... notable opponents #13 FSU #34 UH #55 GS
3. (2016) FBS rank 85th...outcome 2-10... notable opponents #38 UH #54 App
4. (2019) FBS rank 90th (pivotal matchups Wyoming (95), Troy (93), ULM (103) and FCS #11 Nicholls at home
5. (2017) FBS rank 92nd...outcome 2-10... notable opponents #63 App #67 CU and #68 Troy
6. (2013) FBS rank 95th...outcome 6-6 and missed bowl ...notable opponents #39 TTU #72 ULL
7. (2014) FBS rank 97th ...outcome 7-5 and missed bowl altogether...notable opponents #69 Navy #71 GS
8. (2018) FBS rank 99th (outcome 3-9... couldn't capitalize on easiest schedule then Withers gets fired.... notable opponent #45 App
Here is our strength of schedule resumes' based on average opponent ranking since 2012 and as you can see there isn't huge difference in SOS from year to year due to the conference we play in and our reluctance put more than 1 P5 on the schedule in any given year (this ranking does not count FCS strength b/c they aren't recognized)
***FPI measure (Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field)
1. (2012) FBS rank 80th...outcome 4-8... notable opponents #30 TTU #32 UtSt #49 LaTech
2. (2015) FBS rank 83rd...outcome 3-9... notable opponents #13 FSU #34 UH #55 GS
3. (2016) FBS rank 85th...outcome 2-10... notable opponents #38 UH #54 App
4. (2019) FBS rank 90th (pivotal matchups Wyoming (95), Troy (93), ULM (103) and FCS #11 Nicholls at home
5. (2017) FBS rank 92nd...outcome 2-10... notable opponents #63 App #67 CU and #68 Troy
6. (2013) FBS rank 95th...outcome 6-6 and missed bowl ...notable opponents #39 TTU #72 ULL
7. (2014) FBS rank 97th ...outcome 7-5 and missed bowl altogether...notable opponents #69 Navy #71 GS
8. (2018) FBS rank 99th (outcome 3-9... couldn't capitalize on easiest schedule then Withers gets fired.... notable opponent #45 App
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Jake Spav radio interview today: Jake Spav Hour 1 clip
-not clear on QB yet
wants to know who and pushed Jake on that and he says "you have an idea" then phone cut off! Ha!
-Multiple coaches last 5 years
buy in was good after 1st two weeks and spring game went in right direction
-Jake's style vs. TXST offensive woes last few years
Focus on getting better (said Offense was up and down but D and Special Teams were good); lost 5 games by 10 or less points; focusing on getting better each day (5 plays in a game that need to happen to win those games); not talented enough to just win but to be disciplined enough to win (make those 5 plays)
At least he's honest that we aren't talented enough yet to just go toe to toe and make mistakes that we can rise above. Gotta be sound/disciplined to win.
-Has Zac on staff.. could barely hear it.
-Season start with A&M, Wyoming, SMU
Great opportunity to go to a big game at A&M/national stage
Radio guys talk about Jake and recruiting about his background... wha wha... Ofer so far... Just saying...
-not clear on QB yet
wants to know who and pushed Jake on that and he says "you have an idea" then phone cut off! Ha!
-Multiple coaches last 5 years
buy in was good after 1st two weeks and spring game went in right direction
-Jake's style vs. TXST offensive woes last few years
Focus on getting better (said Offense was up and down but D and Special Teams were good); lost 5 games by 10 or less points; focusing on getting better each day (5 plays in a game that need to happen to win those games); not talented enough to just win but to be disciplined enough to win (make those 5 plays)
At least he's honest that we aren't talented enough yet to just go toe to toe and make mistakes that we can rise above. Gotta be sound/disciplined to win.
-Has Zac on staff.. could barely hear it.
-Season start with A&M, Wyoming, SMU
Great opportunity to go to a big game at A&M/national stage
Radio guys talk about Jake and recruiting about his background... wha wha... Ofer so far... Just saying...