Aro is very correct. We don't have an alumni base that can cough up millions to pay a coach's buyout like many of the blue blood schools. TJ is making somewhere in the ballpark of $300-350k / year (I couldn't find his salary, but Mid-Major Madness had Kasper at $302k, so I'd have to imagine TJ is in the same ballpark). We extended him through 2027, meaning he has four years left. It would cost us about $300-$400k (half of his remaining salary) to pay his buyout plus additional money to bring in a new coach. We wait until next season, that number is probably closer to $225-$275.
Unfortunately coaches are always going to be a gamble for schools, so I'm sure they have to look at how much it's going to cost in potential lost revenue to keep him vs. paying his buyout. Attendance was not great this year, but would another coach generate more in ticket sales than the cost of paying TJ's buyout? If we turn sub-.500 seasons into .750-.800 or better and are actively competing for the SBC Championship regularly, we could easily manage an additional 2,500-3,000 fans. That's enough to double ticket, concession, and merch sales and would generate enough revenue to justify the cost of the buyout. (Ideally, if we had the money I'd be making plans to drive down Lake Charles this weekend and have a nice conversation with their coach. I don't know if we could bid enough to land him, but a coach that's 29-3 in his first year is worth looking into.)
Speaking of buyouts, are we still on the hook for Spav or has his contract fall off of our books? If I remember right, he was signed to five years in Dec. 2018, which would have taken him through this past December 2023. That might have been a part of what they used to extend/raise GJK.
Edit: Thank you to LTK for digging up the attendance numbers. So just looking at ticket revenue alone, it looks poor attendance is costing us about $250k / year. That lines up very well with my estimates for his buyout next year. You also have to figure in lost revenue from merch and concessions and we could certainly justify the move next year.