Men's 2022 Bracketology

slycat

slycat

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The SBC won't be a two bid conference anytime soon. Maybe if a team had a top 50 or top 35 RPI and lost the conference championship game they would sneak in. But overall it will just be the the tournament winner. I think we were projected as a 14 to 15 seed last year and lost to App who ended up winning it all. They were trash enough they fell to a play in game. I want to play in March but really hope it isn't for a play in game and then set up to get demolished by Gonzaga.
 
LTK5H

LTK5H

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slycat said:
really hope it isn't for a play in game and then set up to get demolished by Gonzaga.
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Would you rather be a play-in 16 and win to play a 1, or a 15 w/ almost no chance at all of winning the game vs a 2?
 
LTK5H

LTK5H

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Gotta say I'm torn on this one. A play in win is still an NCAA Tournament win.

slycat said:
2 vs 15. At least that victory has happened more than a 1 vs 16.
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Just looked it up for giggles:
15 seeds are 8-132 vs 2 seeds since 2000 for a .0571 win percentage.
16 seeds are 1-139 vs 1 seeds since 2000 for a .0072 win percentage
 
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franslasttwinkie

franslasttwinkie

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Part of me feels like if we hit 20 regular season wins and were to win the conference tournament (meaning 3 straight wins to finish 23-7) there should be no chance of being stuck in a play in game. We might even be a bubble team on the fringe of a 14 seed equivalent somewhere in the mid to lower 50s seeding
 
X

_x_

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Just basing it off the original post that got this discussion started if we were a 60 seed overall you could slot us in as a likely 15 seed.

Seeds 65-68 = play-in round
Seeds 63-64 = non play-in round 16 seeds
Seeds 59-62 = 15 seeds

IMO we're closer to a 13/14 seed than a play-in game as of right now.

Saul is right that your regular season standing in the conference doesn't technically matter, but the odds of a regular season SBC champ having the overall resume to be in the play-in round is pretty close to 0. It's gonna be years like last year where the 7-seed wins the conference tournament that the SBC has play-in teams. Even then it may be rare, our middle of the pack teams are still usually gonna have better resumes than a lot of SWAC/MEAC type tournament champs usually. I think Troy was a 7-seed when they beat us in the 2017 championship game and they were still a 15-seed.

Without going back to check I think last year is the first time the SBC has ever had a team have to play in the play-in round. It's really not something we have to worry about. Also I kind of hate talking about this at this time of year every year. I feel like this exact discussion jinxes our chances every year. We have a long ways to go to making the tournament, let alone worrying about our seeding.
 
LTK5H

LTK5H

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_x_ said:
Without going back to check I think last year is the first time the SBC has ever had a team have to play in the play-in round.
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Happened in 2013 in the 11 spot, not the 16.
LTK5H said:
Last time it happened was 2013 when MTSU went 28-5, but lost in the semis of the SBC - they were an 11 and had to play in.
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Josh

Josh

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I would be happy with any tournament appearance, but I'm with _X_... I seriously doubt we end up a 16 seed if we win the conference tourney (which we'd have to do to get in at all). 16th seeds are typically for low-major champs and dark horse mid-major tourney winners.
 
Josh

Josh

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I'd venture to say that TXST would be seeded higher than any program that comes out of these 7 conferences, regardless of the team.
Big Sky
Big South
Horizon
Northeast
MEAC
Southland
SWAC

Just off the top of my head.. likely anybody but:
Towson, Hofstra - Colonial
Princeton, (maybe Yale)- IVY
Liberty - ASUN
SDSU, ORU - Summit
Montana St. - Big Sky
Longwood - Big South
Vermont - Am East
Colgate - Patriot League
A couple of these would be near even with us... and a handful of other conference scenarios would work to our favor as well.
Barring some bad luck, it's hard to envision us at 16 if we do make it. I'd guess 14 is more likely. (Unless we fall flat to end the regular season and still manage to win the tournament)
 
LTK5H

LTK5H

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The only time a SBC Tournament Champion is going to be a 16 seed is when they were a true upset winner, like last year w/ App St or in 2013 w/ WKU.
 
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stlwildcats

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@South Alabama has a chance to be a Quad 2 game. Would help the resume if they could win that one. Just win the 3-4 games in Pensacola damn it.
 
LTK5H

LTK5H

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I wouldn't go that far at all. And where are you even pulling that data from that's 2 weeks old?
 
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