Bobcat fans, the time has finally come. This Tuesday, December 26th, Texas State will play their 13th game of the season for the first time since joining the FBS.
The Bobcats will head to Dallas to take on the Rice Owls, a program that is trending in a positive direction, just like Texas State. The Owls are going into the game coming off a 6-6 season in the AAC. While that record is not head turning at a glance, Rice has had an impressive season. They took down Houston early in the year, and gave Tulane and SMU all they could handle in their games against them.
Mike Bloomgren has done a fantastic job since taking over at Rice in 2018, taking the reins from Texas State coach David Bailiff. This will be the the second straight year that the Owls have participated in a bowl game, they fell to Southern Miss 38-24 in the LendingTree Bowl last season.
A Look at Rice
For most of the fall, Rice was led by sixth-year senior JT Daniels. Unfortunately, news came out several weeks ago that Daniels has medically retired from football after suffering multiple concussions. Redshirt freshman AJ Padgett has taken over for Daniels, and has performed well considering how much the offense relied on JT Daniels early in the season. The Frisco native is an accurate passer and has been completing his passes at a 63.5% rate thus far. Padgett is not a spectacular athlete. He does not have elite arm strength, and he is capable of running but is not electric.
The run game has held the Owls offense back from being among the best in the country this season. They have not been able to get consistency or efficiency from the rushing attack. With a defense in Texas State that has done a good job stopping the run, it may be tough sledding for Dean Connors and Juma Otoviano, the primary running backs for Rice.
At receiver, Rice will have maybe the best player on either team in Luke McCaffrey, of course, the brother of NFL running back Christian. He is a taller receiver, standing 6-2 and he has superb athleticism and strength. His strength and technique at the catch point is a great tool for AJ Padgett, as McCaffrey does not even have to be open to make a big play. The Owls rely on him for so much of their passing attack, he will certainly be the biggest focus for the Bobcats.
Defensively, Rice is far from a great team. However, they are certainly capable of putting together great performances on a game-by-game basis. They don’t necessarily specialize in anything like forcing turnovers, creating pressure, or forcing offenses to become one-dimensional.
However, the Owls defense has size and athleticism, particularly in the secondary. They will not allow the Texas State receivers to just run past them. They’re a defense that does slightly better against the pass compared to their production facing the run. Like I said, they have a talented secondary, safety is a position of depth for them. Kinne and Finley will have to be aware of that when they dial up passing plays.
The Texas State offensive line thrives when they get to go downhill and push opposing defenses back. I expect Mahdi to be heavily involved in the opening drives of the game, allowing the Bobcats to go after the Owls at the line of scrimmage.
Final Thoughts
Honestly, when this game was first announced I felt like it should be a comfortable win for the Bobcats due to Rice not having Daniels for the game. However, as we inch closer to kickoff, the outlook appears much closer than I originally thought.
Rice is a talented team, Luke McCaffrey is a star. Even more importantly, they’re well-coached and experienced. This is a team and a coaching staff with a lot of continuity. Bloomgren has been head coach since 2018, and both coordinators have been at Rice for multiple years. Stuff like that matters when teams get nearly a month of preparation.
Neither team’s defense appears to be particularly strong, so this looks to be a high-scoring game. Ultimately, I think the Bobcats just have too much firepower for Rice to handle. The playmakers that Texas State have offensively will shine, and I expect big games from Ismail Mahdi and TJ Finley.
In the end, I think it’s asking too much of a backup freshman quarterback to go toe-to-toe with one of the best offenses the G5 has to offer. As flawed a unit as the Texas State defense is, I think they will be able to force some key turnovers and help the Bobcats pull away to victory in the first bowl game in program history.
